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The ‘Puzzles’ Methodology: En Route to Indirect Inference?

  • Vo Phuong Mai Le

    ()

  • Patrick Minford

    ()

  • Michael Wickens

We review the methods used in many papers to evaluate DSGE models by comparing their simulated moments with data moments. We compare these with the method of Indirect Inference to which they are closely related. We illustrate the comparison with contrasting assessments of a two-country model in two recent papers. We conclude that Indirect Inference is the proper end point of the puzzles methodology.

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File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/economics/CDMA/papers/cp0903.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Conference Paper Series with number 0903.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmacp:0903
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9AL
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  1. Henriksen, Espen & Kydland, Finn & Sustek, Roman, 2008. "The High Cross-Country Correlations of Prices and Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 10963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2009. "Two Orthogonal Continents: Testing a Two-country DSGE Model of the US and EU Using Indirect Inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/3, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Dec 2009.
  3. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De.
  4. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S85-118, Suppl. De.
  5. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2008. "Testing a DSGE Model of the EU Using Indirect Inference," CEPR Discussion Papers 6838, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Patrick Minford & Konstantinos Theodoridis & David Meenagh, 2009. "Testing a Model of the UK by the Method of Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 265-291, April.
  8. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2008. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a New Keynesian DSGE Model using indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/32, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Jul 2011.
  9. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2006. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 196, Society for Computational Economics.
  10. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1987. "Calibration as Estimation," Working Papers 700, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  11. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 14313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J & McGrattan, Ellen R, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 533-63, July.
  13. Kollmann, Robert, 2009. "Household Heterogeneity and the Real Exchange Rate: Still a Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  15. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  16. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2009. "Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 978-992, September.
  17. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1991. "Calibration in Macroeconomics," Working Papers 826, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  18. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
  19. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Christoph Thoenissen, 2007. "Money And Monetary Policy In Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(s1), pages 88-122, 09.
  20. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Calibration as Testing: Inference in Simulated Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 297-303, July.
  21. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickensy, 2007. " Testing a DSGE model of the EU using indirect inference," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0709, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised Mar 2008.
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