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The ‘Puzzles’ Methodology: En Route to Indirect Inference?

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  • Vo Phuong Mai Le

  • Patrick Minford

  • Michael Wickens

Abstract

We review the methods used in many papers to evaluate DSGE models by comparing their simulated moments with data moments. We compare these with the method of Indirect Inference to which they are closely related. We illustrate the comparison with contrasting assessments of a two-country model in two recent papers. We conclude that Indirect Inference is the proper end point of the puzzles methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Vo Phuong Mai Le & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens, 2009. "The ‘Puzzles’ Methodology: En Route to Indirect Inference?," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0903, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:san:cdmacp:0903
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    Cited by:

    1. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Nowell, Eric & Sofat, Prakriti, 2010. "Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1131-1150, October.
    2. Nasir Aminu, 2018. "Evaluation of a DSGE Model of Energy in the United Kingdom Using Stationary Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 1033-1068, April.
    3. Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R. & Davidson, James & Meenagh, David, 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models

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