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Testing DSGE models by Indirect inference and other methods: some Monte Carlo experiments

Using Monte Carlo experiments, we examine the performance of Indirect Inference tests of DSGE models, usually versions of the Smets-Wouters New Keynesian model of the US postwar period. We compare these with tests based on direct inference (using the Likelihood Ratio), and on the Del Negro–Schorfheide DSGE–VAR weight. We ?nd that the power of all three tests is substantial so that a false model will tend to be rejected by all three; but that the power of the indirect inference tests are by far the greatest, necessitating re-estimation by indirect inference to ensure that the model is tested in its fullest sense.

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Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2012/15.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2012/15
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  1. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs," Working Paper 2002-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2013. "A Monte Carlo procedure for checking identification in DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/4, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  3. Hansen,B.E., 1998. "The grid bootstrap and the autoregressive model," Working papers 26, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  4. Gregory, Allan W & Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Calibration as Testing: Inference in Simulated Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 297-303, July.
  5. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2008. "How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a New Keynesian DSGE Model using indirect inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/32, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Jul 2011.
  6. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2010. "The 'Puzzles' methodology: En route to Indirect Inference?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1417-1428, November.
  7. Davidson, James & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael R., 2010. "Why crises happen - nonstationary macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 8157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
  9. Horowitz, Joel L., 2001. "The bootstrap and hypothesis tests in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 37-40, January.
  10. Allan W. Gregory & Gregor W. Smith, 1991. "Calibration in Macroeconomics," Working Papers 826, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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