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Comparing behavioural and rational expectations for the US post-war economy

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  • Liu, Chunping
  • Minford, Patrick

Abstract

The banking crisis has caused a resurgence of interest in behavioural models of expectations in macroeconomics. Here we evaluate behavioural and rational expectations econometrically in a New Keynesian framework, using US post-war data and the method of indirect inference. We find that after full reestimation the model with behavioural expectations is strongly rejected by the data, whereas the standard rational expectation version passes the tests by a substantial margin.

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  • Liu, Chunping & Minford, Patrick, 2014. "Comparing behavioural and rational expectations for the US post-war economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 407-415.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:43:y:2014:i:c:p:407-415
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.09.013
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    2. Reiner Franke & Frank Westerhoff, 2017. "Taking Stock: A Rigorous Modelling Of Animal Spirits In Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1152-1182, December.
    3. Jenyu Chou & Yifei Cao & Patrick Minford, 2023. "Evaluation and indirect inference estimation of inattentive features in a New Keynesian framework," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 530-542, April.
    4. Kukacka, Jiri & Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2018. "On the estimation of behavioral macroeconomic models via simulated maximum likelihood," Economics Working Papers 2018-11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    5. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2016. "A note on news about the future: the impact on DSGE models and their VAR representation," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2016/11, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    6. Michael Hatcher & Patrick Minford, 2016. "Stabilisation Policy, Rational Expectations And Price-Level Versus Inflation Targeting: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 327-355, April.
    7. Miah, Fazlul & Khalifa, Ahmed Ali & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2016. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations: A comprehensive study of developed and emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 574-590.
    8. Jang, Tae-Seok & Sacht, Stephen, 2021. "Forecast heuristics, consumer expectations, and New-Keynesian macroeconomics: A Horse race," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 493-511.
    9. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-38, February.
    10. Liu, Chunping & Minford, Patrick, 2014. "How important is the credit channel? An empirical study of the US banking crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 119-134.
    11. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2016. "The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 203-218.
    12. Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2023. "Estimation of heuristic switching in behavioral macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    13. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Wickens, Michael, 2015. "Small sample performance of indirect inference on DSGE models," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    14. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2017. "How Should News Shocks Be Specified Under Rational Expectations?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2017/7, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Xu, Yingying & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Modeling heterogeneous inflation expectations: empirical evidence from demographic data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 153-163.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioural expectation; Rational expectation; Bank crisis; Indirect inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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