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Can behavioral finance models account for historical asset prices?

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  • ap Gwilym, Rhys

Abstract

I construct a behavioral model of asset pricing in which agents choose whether to base their expectations on chartist or fundamental forecasts. I simulate the model in order to test its efficacy in explaining the moments and time series properties of the FTSE All-Share index, and find that the model cannot be rejected as the data generating process.

Suggested Citation

  • ap Gwilym, Rhys, 2009. "Can behavioral finance models account for historical asset prices?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/17, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2009/17
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    2. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2007. "Simulating stock returns under switching regimes - A new test of market efficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 235-239, February.
    3. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
    4. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Progress & data in economics
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2009-10-19 18:55:25

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    Cited by:

    1. ap Gwilym, Rhys, 2009. "The Monetary Policy Implications of Behavioral Asset Bubbles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    2. Rhys ap Gwilym, 2013. "The Monetary Policy Implications of Behavioral Asset Bubbles," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(1), pages 252-270, July.
    3. Liu, Chunping & Minford, Patrick, 2014. "Comparing behavioural and rational expectations for the US post-war economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 407-415.
    4. Rhys ap Gwilym, 2013. "The Monetary Policy Implications of Behavioral Asset Bubbles," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 252-270, July.
    5. Michael Hatcher & Patrick Minford, 2016. "Stabilisation Policy, Rational Expectations And Price-Level Versus Inflation Targeting: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 327-355, April.
    6. Michael Hatcher & Tim Hellmann, 2024. "Communication, networks and asset price dynamics: a survey," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 19(1), pages 1-58, January.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles

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