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Stabilisation Policy, Rational Expectations And Price-Level Versus Inflation Targeting: A Survey

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  • Michael Hatcher
  • Patrick Minford

Abstract

We survey recent literature comparing inflation targeting (IT) and price-level targeting (PT) as macroeconomic stabilization policies. Our focus is on New Keynesian models and areas which have seen significant developments since Ambler s (2009) survey: the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates,financial frictions,and optimal monetary policy. Ambler s main conclusion that PT improves the inflation-output volatility trade-off in New Keynesian models is reasonably robust to these extensions, several of which are attempts to address issues raised by the recent financial crisis. The beneficial effects of PT therefore appear to hang on the joint assumption that agents are rational and the economy New Keynesian. Accordingly, we discuss recent experimental and survey evidence on whether expectations are rational, as well as the applied macro literature on the empirical performance of New Keynesian models. In addition, we discuss a more recent strand of applied literature that has formally tested New Keynesian models with rational expectations. Overall the evidence is not conclusive, but we note that New Keynesian models are able to match a number of dynamic features in the data and that behavioural models of the macroeconomy are outperformed by those with rational expectations in formal statistical tests. Accordingly, we argue that policymakers should continue to pay attention to PT.
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Suggested Citation

  • Michael Hatcher & Patrick Minford, 2016. "Stabilisation Policy, Rational Expectations And Price-Level Versus Inflation Targeting: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 327-355, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:30:y:2016:i:2:p:327-355
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/joes.2016.30.issue-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy under bounded rationality," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 67, pages 1-25.
    2. Stefano Neri & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2017. "Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Bodenstein, Martin & Hebden, James & Winkler, Fabian, 2022. "Learning and misperception of makeup strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Herzog, Bodo, 2023. "How credible is average and symmetric inflation targeting in an episode of high inflation?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1750-1761.
    5. Daniel Heymann & Gabriel Montes-Rojas, 2018. "On model-consistent expectations in macroeconomics," Económica, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 64, pages 22-45, January-D.
    6. Coletti, Donald & Lalonde, René & Masson, Paul & Muir, Dirk & Snudden, Stephen, 2021. "Commodities and monetary policy: Implications for inflation and price level targeting," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 982-999.
    7. Gupta, Rangan & Stander, Lardo, 2018. "Endogenous fluctuations in an endogenous growth model: An analysis of inflation targeting as a policy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-8.
    8. Gerhard Illing & Thomas Siemsen, 2016. "Forward Guidance at the Zero Lower Bound in a Model of Price-Level Targeting," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(1), pages 47-67.
    9. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2020. "Monetary Policy Strategies for the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 133-193, February.
    10. Mele, Antonio & Molnár, Krisztina & Santoro, Sergio, 2020. "On the perils of stabilizing prices when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 339-353.
    11. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
    12. Martin Bodenstein & James Hebden & Fabian Winkler, 2019. "Learning and Misperception: Implications for Price-Level Targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo De Pace & Li Li, 2014. "An international perspective on the recent behavior of inflation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(3), pages 267-294.
    14. Cole, Stephen J., 2020. "The influence of learning and price-level targeting on central bank forward guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. B. De Backer & J. Wauters, 2017. "The cyclical and structural determinants of the low interest rate environment," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 69-86, september.
    16. Dong, Xue & Minford, Patrick & Meenagh, David & Yang, Xiaoliang, 2023. "Bounded rational expectation: How it can affect the effectiveness of monetary rules in the open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2016. "Monetarism rides again? US monetary policy in a world of Quantitative Easing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 85-102.
    18. Alfred Duncan & Charles Nolan, 2020. "Reform of the UK Financial Policy Committee," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(1), pages 1-30, February.
    19. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2020. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 88-103.
    20. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xiao, Zhiguo, 2015. "China s financial crisis the role of banks and monetary policy," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/1, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    21. Yu Chen & Apostolos Serletis, 2025. "Monetary Policy Strategies in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 1-23, February.
    22. Sofia Bauducco & Rodrigo Caputo, 2020. "Wicksellian Rules and the Taylor Principle: Some Practical Implications," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(1), pages 340-368, January.
    23. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xiao, Zhiguo, 2021. "Shadow banks, banking policies and China’s macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    24. Mota, Paulo R. & Fernandes, Abel L.C., 2022. "Is the ECB already following albeit implicitly an average inflation targeting strategy?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 149-162.
    25. Mohamed Douch, 2019. "Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Imperfect Pass-Through," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(4), pages 445-461, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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