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Comparing behavioural and rational expectations for the US post-war economy

The banking crisis has caused a resurgence of interest in behavioural models of expectations in macroeconomics. Here we evaluate behavioural and rational expectations econometrically in a New Keynesian framework, using US post-war data and the method of indirect inference. We find that after full re-estimation the model with behavioural expectations is strongly rejected by the data, whereas the standard rational expectations version passes the tests by a substantial margin.

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Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2012/21.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2012/21
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