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A Simple Test of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

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  • Andrea Carriero

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

Abstract

We propose a way to test the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) without estimating the structural parameters governing the curve, i.e. price stickiness and firms' backwardness. Using this strategy we can test the NKPC avoiding the identification problems related to the GMM approach. We find that it does not exist a combination of the structural parameters which is consistent with US data. This result does not necessarily imply that the idea of a forward looking price setting behaviour should be entirely disregarded, as the rejection might be due to the failure of the joint hypothesis of rational expectations. Thus further research should be aimed at providing alternative models for agents' expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Carriero, 2007. "A Simple Test of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 592, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:592
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    Cited by:

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    2. Adriana Cornea‐Madeira & João Madeira, 2022. "Econometric Analysis of Switching Expectations in UK Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 651-673, June.
    3. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    4. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Surricchio, Silvia & Waldmann, Robert J., 2019. "A behavioral model of the credit cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 53-83.
    5. Medel, Carlos, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," MPRA Paper 62609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Adriana Cornea-Madeira & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2019. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 288-300, April.
    7. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VARs; Inflation; Phillips curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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