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Inflation Dynamics and Real Marginal Costs: New Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing Industries

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  • Ivan Petrella

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

  • Emiliano Santoro

    (Catholic University of Milan
    University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

This paper deals with the analysis of price-setting in U.S. manufacturing industries. Recent studies have heavily criticized the ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) to fit aggregate inflation [see, e.g., Rudd and Whelan, 2006, Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?, American Economic Review, vol. 96(1), pp. 303-320]. We challenge this evidence, showing that forward-looking behaviour as implied by the New Keynesian model of price-setting is widely supported at the sectoral level. In fact, current and expected future values of the income share of intermediate goods emerge as an effective driver of inflation dynamics. Unlike alternative proxies for the forcing variable, the cost of intermediate goods presents dynamic properties in line with the predictions of the New Keynesian theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Petrella & Emiliano Santoro, 2012. "Inflation Dynamics and Real Marginal Costs: New Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1202, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1202
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    File URL: https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/5957
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    2. Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 25-69, january-j.
    3. Milda Norkute, 2015. "Can the sectoral New Keynesian Phillips curve explain inflation dynamics in the Euro Area?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1191-1216, December.
    4. Benjamin Born & Johannes Pfeifer, 2021. "Uncertainty‐driven business cycles: Assessing the markup channel," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 587-623, May.
    5. Cantelmo, Alessandro & Melina, Giovanni, 2018. "Monetary policy and the relative price of durable goods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-48.
    6. Richard Ashley & Randal Verbrugge, 2019. "Finding a Stable Phillips Curve Relationship: A Persistence-Dependent Regression Mode," Working Papers 201909R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 08 Apr 2020.
    7. Christopher Malikane & Tshepo Mokoka, 2014. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: endogeneity and misspecification," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3082-3089, September.
    8. Abbas, Syed K. & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar & Sgro, Pasquale, 2016. "The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical advances," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 378-403.
    9. Hülya Saygılı, 2020. "The nature of trade, global production fragmentation and inflationary dynamics: Cross‐country evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 2007-2031, July.
    10. Mutiu Gbade Rasaki, 2017. "An Estimated New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(2), pages 203-211, April.
    11. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "A new Keynesian triangle Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 247-255.
    12. Hülya Saygılı, 2020. "Sectoral inflationary dynamics: cross-country evidence on the open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(1), pages 75-101, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New Keynesian Phillips Curve; Aggregation; Sectoral Data; Intermediate Goods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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