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Inflation Dynamics and Real Marginal Costs: New Evidence from U.S. Manufacturing Industries

  • Ivan Petrella

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

  • Emiliano Santoro

    (Catholic University of Milan
    University of Copenhagen)

This paper deals with the analysis of price-setting in U.S. manufacturing industries. Recent studies have heavily criticized the ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) to fit aggregate inflation [see, e.g., Rudd and Whelan, 2006, Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?, American Economic Review, vol. 96(1), pp. 303-320]. We challenge this evidence, showing that forward-looking behaviour as implied by the New Keynesian model of price-setting is widely supported at the sectoral level. In fact, current and expected future values of the income share of intermediate goods emerge as an effective driver of inflation dynamics. Unlike alternative proxies for the forcing variable, the cost of intermediate goods presents dynamic properties in line with the predictions of the New Keynesian theory.

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File URL: http://www.bbk.ac.uk/ems/research/wp/2012/PDFs/BWPEF1202.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
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Paper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 1202.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1202
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