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Intermediate Goods and Business Cycles: Implications for Productivity and Welfare

  • Basu, S.

This paper presents an aggregate demand-driven model of business cycles that provides a new explanation for the procyclicality of productivity and simultaneously predicts large welfare losses from monetary nonneutrality. The key features of the model are an input-output production structure; imperfect competition; countercyclical markups; and, for some results, state-dependent price rigidity. True technical efficiency is procyclical even though production takes place with constant returns, without technology shocks or technological externalities. The paper has observable implications that distinguish it empirically from related work. These implications are generally supported by data from U.S. manufacturing industries. Copyright 1995 by American Economic Association.

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Paper provided by Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory in its series Papers with number 93-23.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 1993
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:michet:93-23

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Gary Solon & Robert Barsky & Jonathan A. Parker, 1992. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Composition Bias," NBER Working Papers 4202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:100:y:1985:i:5:p:823-38 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Domowitz, Ian & Hubbard, R Glenn & Petersen, Bruce C, 1988. "Market Structure and Cyclical Fluctuations in U.S. Manufacturing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(1), pages 55-66, February.
  4. Evans, Charles L., 1992. "Productivity shocks and real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 191-208, April.
  5. Basu, S.: Fernald, J.G., 1993. "Constant Returns and Small Markups in U.S. Manufacturing," Papers 93-19, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  6. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June.
  7. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:104:y:1989:i:3:p:507-24 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Laurence M. Ball & David Romer, 1987. "Are Prices Too Sticky?," NBER Working Papers 2171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1989. "Building Blocks of Market Clearing Business Cycle Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 247-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Dale W. Jorgenson, 1991. "Productivity and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Fifty Years of Economic Measurement: The Jubilee of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, pages 19-118 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:100:y:1985:i:2:p:529-38 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Bernanke, Ben S & Parkinson, Martin L, 1991. "Procyclical Labor Productivity and Competing Theories of the Business Cycle: Some Evidence from Interwar U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 439-59, June.
  13. Rotemberg, Julio J & Saloner, Garth, 1986. "A Supergame-Theoretic Model of Price Wars during Booms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 390-407, June.
  14. Carlton, Dennis W, 1986. "The Rigidity of Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 637-58, September.
  15. Ricardo J. Caballero & Richard K. Lyons, 1989. "The Role of External Economies in U.S. Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 3033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  17. Gordon, Robert J, 1990. "What Is New-Keynesian Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1115-71, September.
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