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Inflation dynamics and real marginal costs: new evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries

  • Ivan PETRELLA
  • Emiliano SANTORO

This paper deals with the analysis of price-setting in U.S. manufacturing industries. Recent studies have heavily criticized the ability of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) to fit aggregate inflation [see, e.g., Rudd and Whelan, 2006, Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?, American Economic Review, vol. 96(1), pp. 303-320 ]. We challenge this evidence, showing that forward-looking behavior as implied by the New Keynesian model of price-setting is widely supported at the sectoral level. In fact, current and expected future values of the income share of intermediate goods emerge as an effective driver of inflation dynamics. Unlike alternative proxies for the forcing variable, the cost of intermediate goods presents dynamic properties in line with the predictions of the New Keynesian theory.

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Paper provided by KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number ces11.38.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
Handle: RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces11.38
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://feb.kuleuven.be/Economics/

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