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Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries

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  • Borek Vašícek

Abstract

This paper seeks to shed light on the inflation dynamics of four new central European EU members: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. To this end, the New Keynesian Phillips curve augmented for open economies is estimated and additional statistical tests applied, with the following results: (1) the claim of New Keynesians that the real marginal cost is the main inflation-forcing variable is fragile, (2) inflation seems to be driven by external factors, and (3) although inflation holds a forward-looking component, the backward-looking component is substantial. An intuitive explanation for higher inflation persistence may be adaptive, rather than rational price setting of local firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Borek Vašícek, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Four Central European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 71-100, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:47:y:2011:i:5:p:71-100
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 099-115, August.
    2. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.
    3. Vít Pošta, 2015. "Semi-structural estimates of time-varying NAIRU based on the new Keynesian Phillips curve: evidence from Eastern European economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1217-1243, December.
    4. Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Is monetary policy in the new EU member states asymmetric?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 235-263.
    5. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "A new Keynesian triangle Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 247-255.
    6. Selen Baser & Hande Kucuk & Fethi Ogunc, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics in Turkey : In Pursuit of a Domestic Cost Measure," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1311, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 67081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. repec:mes:eaeuec:v:53:y:2015:i:2:p:149-165 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2012. "Meta-Analysis of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 314, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    10. Pošta, 2015. "Time-Varying NAIRU and Some of Its Determinants—A Semi-Structural Approach: Evidence from Eastern European Economies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 149-165, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central European countries; GMM estimation; inflation dynamics; New Keynesian Phillips curve;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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