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U.S. wage and price dynamics: a limited information approach

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  • Argia M. Sbordone

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamics of prices and wages using a limited information approach to estimation. I estimate a two-equation model for the determination of prices and wages derived from an optimization-based dynamic model in which both goods and labor markets are monopolistically competitive; prices and wages can be reoptimized only at random intervals; and, when prices and wages are not reoptimized, they can be partially adjusted to previous-period aggregate inflation. The estimation procedure is a two-step minimum distance estimation that exploits the restrictions imposed by the model on a time-series representation of the data. In the first step, I estimate an unrestricted autoregressive representation of the variables of interest. In the second, I express the model solution as a constrained autoregressive representation of the data and define the distance between unconstrained and constrained representations as a function of the structural parameters that characterize the joint dynamics of inflation and labor share. This function summarizes the cross-equation restrictions between the model and the time-series representations of the data. I then estimate the parameters of interest by minimizing a quadratic function of that distance. I find that the estimated dynamics of prices and wages track actual dynamics quite well and that the estimated parameters are consistent with the observed length of nominal contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "U.S. wage and price dynamics: a limited information approach," Staff Reports 256, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:256
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Potential supply, the output gap and inflation
      by bankunderground in Bank Underground on 2016-01-25 13:30:48

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    Cited by:

    1. Givens, Gregory E., 2009. "Which price level to target? Strategic delegation in a sticky price and wage economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 685-698, December.
    2. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2009. "Minimum Distance Estimation and Testing of DSGE Models from Structural VARs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 883-894, December.
    3. Sbordone, Argia M., 2007. "Inflation persistence: Alternative interpretations and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1311-1339, July.
    4. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Straub, Roland, 2012. "Changes in the output Euler equation and asset markets participation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 1659-1672.
    5. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    6. López Pérez, Víctor, 2015. "Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the new Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?," Working Paper Series 1763, European Central Bank.
    7. Furlanetto, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal stimulus and the role of wage rigidity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 512-527, April.
    8. Jordi Galí, 2011. "The Return Of The Wage Phillips Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 436-461, June.
    9. Jordi Galí, 2010. "The Return of the Wage Phillips Curve," Working Papers 474, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    10. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
    11. Muto, Ichiro & Shintani, Kohei, 2014. "An Empirical Study on the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve: Japan and the US," MPRA Paper 53934, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 55-70.
    13. Christopher A. Sims, 2008. "Inflation expectations, uncertainty, the Phillips curve, and monetary policy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 53.
    14. Zhang, Wenlang, 2009. "China's monetary policy: Quantity versus price rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 473-484, September.
    15. Maria Ferrara & Patrizio Tirelli, 2015. "Disinflation and Inequality in a DSGE monetary model: A Welfare Analysis," Working Papers 305, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2015.
    16. Francesco Nucci & Marianna Riggi, 2011. "Performance pay and shifts in macroeconomic correlations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 800, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Ichiro Muto & Kohei Shintani, 2014. "What are the Characteristics of Japan's Aggregate Wage Dynamics?: An Empirical Study on the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve for Japan and the US," Bank of Japan Research Laboratory Series 14-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    18. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Ng, Serena, 2010. "Estimation of DSGE models when the data are persistent," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 325-340, April.
    19. Víctor López-Pérez, 2017. "Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 147-174, February.
    20. Choi, Yoonseok & Kim, Sunghyun, 2016. "Testing an alternative price-setting behavior in the new Keynesian Phillips curve: Extrapolative price-setting mechanism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 253-265.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prices ; Wages ; Estimation theory ; Inflation (Finance);

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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