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An Empirical Study on the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve: Japan and the US

Author

Listed:
  • Ichiro Muto

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Kohei Shintani

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

We present an empirical analysis on the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve (NKWPC), which is derived by Gali (2011) as a micro-founded structural relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate under a sticky wage framework using data for Japan and the US. We find that the empirical fit of the NKWPC is generally superior for Japan. We also find that the slope of the NKWPC is much steeper in Japan than in the US. These results suggest that wages are less sticky in Japan than in the US. Inflation indexation plays a key role in the US, but is less important in Japan. Rolling estimations indicate that the NKWPC has flattened over time in Japan. Analysis of recent data indicates that in both countries the role of inflation indexation is quantitatively smaller than before, although this result might be influenced by low and stable inflation rates over the past few decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Ichiro Muto & Kohei Shintani, 2014. "An Empirical Study on the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve: Japan and the US," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 14-E-4, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp14e04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    2. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    3. Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2008. "Estimating Frisch labor supply elasticity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 566-585, December.
    4. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    5. Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2003. "Are Japanese Nominal Wages Downwardly Rigid? (Part I): Examinations of Nominal Wage Change Distributions," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, August.
    6. Jordi Galí, 2011. "The Return Of The Wage Phillips Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 436-461, June.
    7. Sachiko Kuroda & Isamu Yamamoto, 2007. "Why Are Nominal Wages Downwardly Rigid, but Less So in Japan? An Explanation Based on Behavioral Economics and Labor Market/Macroeconomic Differences," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(2), pages 45-88, November.
    8. Sbordone, Argia M., 2002. "Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 265-292, March.
    9. Argia M. Sbordone, 2006. "U.S. Wage and Price Dynamics: A Limited-Information Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
    10. Ichiro Muto, 2009. "Estimating A New Keynesian Phillips Curve With A Corrected Measure Of Real Marginal Cost: Evidence In Japan," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 667-684, October.
    11. Isamu Yamamoto, 2008. "Changes in Wage Adjustment, Employment Adjustment and Phillips Curve: Japan's Experience in the 1990s," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2008-024, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
    12. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    13. Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2003. "Are Japanese Nominal Wages Downwardly Rigid? (Part II): Examinations Using a Friction Model," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 31-68, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chun-Hung Kuo & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2016. "Unemployment and Wage Rigidity in Japan: A DSGE Model Perspective," Working Papers EMS_2016_06, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    2. Yuto Iwasaki & Ichiro Muto & Mototsugu Shintani, 2018. "Missing Wage Inflation? Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment in a Nonlinear DSGE Model," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-08, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    3. Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman & Joris Wauters, 2014. "Wage Indexation and the Monetary Policy Regime," CESifo Working Paper Series 5107, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Davide Porcellacchia, 2016. "Wage-Price Dynamics and Structural Reforms in Japan," IMF Working Papers 16/20, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jonathan A. Attey, 2016. "Time-Varying Degree of Wage Indexation and the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-102/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. repec:bla:obuest:v:79:y:2017:i:1:p:55-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ichiro Muto & Kohei Shintani, 2014. "What are the Characteristics of Japan's Aggregate Wage Dynamics?: An Empirical Study on the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve for Japan and the US," Bank of Japan Research Laboratory Series 14-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    8. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Sophie Saglio, 2017. "The Wage Inflation-Unemployment Curve at the Macroeconomic Level," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(1), pages 55-78, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage; Unemployment rate; New Keynesian model; Phillips curve;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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