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Missing wage inflation? Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in a nonlinear DSGE model

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  • Iwasaki, Yuto
  • Muto, Ichiro
  • Shintani, Mototsugu

Abstract

During the recovery from the global financial crisis, most advanced economies have experienced a surprisingly weak response of wage inflation to the decline in unemployment. In this study, we investigate whether downward wage rigidity (DWR) is the source of the flattening wage Phillips curve and the lack of wage inflation in the four advanced economies: Japan, the euro area, the UK and the US. We estimate a nonlinear New Keynesian model with asymmetric wage adjustment costs and the natural rate of unemployment. Wage adjustment costs are found to be highly asymmetric in Japan, the euro area and the UK, but not in the US. The L-shaped wage Phillips curves between wage inflation and the unemployment gap clearly emerge in these three economies. Our policy simulations present a possibility that the missing wage inflation is not a permanent phenomenon and wage inflation is likely to reappear with further improvement in the labor market. Our analysis shows the usefulness of incorporating DWR into models for understanding the background of missing wage inflation and obtaining monetary policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Iwasaki, Yuto & Muto, Ichiro & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2021. "Missing wage inflation? Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in a nonlinear DSGE model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:132:y:2021:i:c:s0014292120302567
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103626
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    6. Takuji Fueki & Shinnosuke Katsuki & Ichiro Muto & Yu Sugisaki, 2023. "Automation and Nominal Rigidities," IMES Discussion Paper Series 23-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    7. Fumitaka Nakamura & Nao Sudo & Yu Sugisaki, 2021. "Monetary Policy Shocks and the Employment of Young, Middle-Aged, and Old Workers," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    8. Yuto Iwasaki & Ichiro Muto & Mototsugu Shintani, 2018. "Missing Wage Inflation? Downward Wage Rigidity and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Bank of Japan Research Laboratory Series 18-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    9. Lehner, Lukas & Ramskogler, Paul & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2022. "Begging thy coworker – Labor market dualization and the slow-down of wage growth in Europe," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-04, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    10. Daiki Date & Takushi Kurozumi & Takashi Nakazawa & Yu Sugioka, 2023. "Heterogeneity and Wage Growth of Full-time Workers in Japan: An Empirical Analysis Using Micro Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-11, Bank of Japan.
    11. Hiroyuki Kubota & Ichiro Muto & Mototsugu Shintani, 2022. "Monetary Policy, Labor Force Participation, and Wage Rigidity," IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    12. De Palma Francesco & Ligonnière Samuel & Saadaoui Jamel & Thommen Yann, 2022. "The role of wage bargaining institutions in the Phillips curve flattening;," Working Papers of BETA 2022-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    13. Wataru Hirata & Toshitaka Maruyama & Tomohide Mineyama, 2020. "Flattening of the Wage Phillips Curve and Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: The Japanese Experience in the 2010s," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    14. Fructuoso Borrallo Egea & Pedro del Río López, 2021. "Monetary policy strategy and inflation in Japan," Occasional Papers 2116, Banco de España.
    15. Tomohide Mineyama, 2023. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Inflation Dynamics during and after the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(5), pages 1213-1244, August.
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    17. Ichiro Fukunaga & Kakuho Furukawa & Shunsuke Haba & Yoshihiko Hogen & Yosuke Kido & Tomohiro Okubo & Kotaro Suita & Kosuke Takatomi, 2023. "Wage Developments in Japan: Four Key Issues for the Post-COVID-19 Wage Growth," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-4, Bank of Japan.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Downward wage rigidity; Natural rate of unemployment; Phillips curve; Particle filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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