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Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

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  • Christopher J. Erceg
  • Mr. Andrew Levin

Abstract

In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during “normal times” (that is, in response to small or transitory shocks) but drops markedly in the wake of a large and persistent aggregate demand shock. Finally, we show that these considerations can have potentially crucial implications for the design of monetary policy, especially under circumstances in which adjustments to the short-term interest rate are constrained by the zero lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher J. Erceg & Mr. Andrew Levin, 2013. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," IMF Working Papers 2013/245, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/245
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; monetary policy; labor force participation; unemployment; monetary policy rules; participation gap; employment gap; labor market; BLS labor force projection; demand shock; labor force participant; vs.the employment gap; proportionality factor; unemployment rate gap; gap vs.the employment gap; participation gap coefficient; unemployment gap; Unemployment rate; Labor force; Labor markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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