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Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

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  • Levin, Andrew
  • Erceg, Christopher

Abstract

In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during "normal times" (that is, in response to small or transitory shocks) but drops markedly in the wake of a large and persistent aggregate demand shock. Finally, we show that these considerations can have potentially crucial implications for the design of monetary policy, especially under circumstances in which adjustments to the short-term interest rate are constrained by the zero lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Levin, Andrew & Erceg, Christopher, 2013. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," CEPR Discussion Papers 9668, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9668
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor force; Policy tradeoffs; Simple rules; Unemployment rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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