IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg

  • Carlstrom, Charles T
  • Fuerst, Timothy S
  • Paustian, Matthias

    ()

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

Recent monetary policy experience suggests a simple diagnostic for models of monetary non-neutrality. Suppose the central bank pegs the nominal interest rate below steady state for a reasonably short period of time. Familiar intuition suggests that this should be modestly inflationary, and a reasonable model should deliver such a prediction. We pursue this simple diagnostic in several variants of the familiar Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) model. Some variants of the model produce counterintuitive inflation reversals where the effect of the interest rate peg can switch from highly inflationary to highly deflationary for only modest changes in the length of the interest rate peg. Curiously, this unusual behavior does not arise in a sticky information model of the Phillips curve.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://www.clevelandfed.org/~/media/content/newsroom%20and%20events/publications/working%20papers/2012/wp%201234%20inflation%20and%20output%20in%20new%20keynesian%20models%20with%20a%20transient%20interst%20rate%20peg%20pdf.pdf?la=en
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 1234.

as
in new window

Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1234
Contact details of provider: Postal:
1455 East 6th St., Cleveland OH 44114

Phone: 216.579.2000
Web page: http://www.clevelandfed.org/

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Stefan Laséen & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2009. "Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations," NBER Working Papers 14902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  3. Stefan Laséen & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2011. "Anticipated Alternative policy Rate Paths in Plicy Simulations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 1-35, September.
  4. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Matthias Paustian, 2014. "Fiscal Multipliers under an Interest Rate Peg of Deterministic versus Stochastic Duration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1312, 09.
  5. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2014. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 3-49, October.
  6. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2015. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-243.
  7. Levin, Andrew & López-Salido, J David & Nelson, Edward & Yun, Tack, 2009. "Limitations on the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 7581, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Ricardo Reis, 2009. "A Sticky-Information General-Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 14732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2010. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. Lena Mareen Koerber & R. Anton Braun, 2010. "New Keynesian Dynamics in a Low Interest Rate Environment," 2010 Meeting Papers 531, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2003. "Monetary Policy for Inattentive Economies," NBER Working Papers 9491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Kiley, Michael T., 2014. "Policy Paradoxes in the New Keynesian Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  15. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 7884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "The perils of Taylor Rules," Departmental Working Papers 199831, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  17. Ivan Werning, 2011. "Managing a Liquidity Trap: Monetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 17344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Laurence Ball, 1990. "Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price Setting," NBER Working Papers 3555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Martin Uribe & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy In A Medium Scale Macro Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 476, Society for Computational Economics.
  20. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 11417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
  22. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
  23. Blake, Andrew, 2012. "Fixed interest rates over finite horizons," Bank of England working papers 454, Bank of England.
  24. Verona, Fabio, 2014. "Pervasive inattentiveness," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 287-290.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (4D Library)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.