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Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg

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  • Charles T. Carlstrom
  • Timothy S. Fuerst
  • Matthias Paustian

Abstract

Recent monetary policy experience suggests a simple diagnostic for models of monetary non-neutrality. Suppose the central bank pegs the nominal interest rate below steady state for a reasonably short period of time. Familiar intuition suggests that this should be modestly inflationary, and a reasonable model should deliver such a prediction. We pursue this simple diagnostic in several variants of the familiar Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) model. Some variants of the model produce counterintuitive inflation reversals where the effect of the interest rate peg can switch from highly inflationary to highly deflationary for only modest changes in the length of the interest rate peg. Curiously, this unusual behavior does not arise in a sticky information model of the Phillips curve.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Matthias Paustian, 2012. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Working Papers (Old Series) 1234, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1234
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Braun, R. Anton & Körber, Lena Mareen, 2011. "New Keynesian dynamics in a low interest rate environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2213-2227.
    6. Andrew Levin & David López-Salido & Edward Nelson & Yack Yun, 2010. "Limitations on the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 143-189, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel Throckmorton, 2013. "The stimulative effect of forward guidance," Working Papers 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 30 Apr 2014.
    2. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks' Macro Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Cole, Stephen, 2016. "The limits of central bank forward guidance under learning," MPRA Paper 70862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2015. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-243.
    5. Hans Gersbach & Volker Hahn & Yulin Liu, 2015. "Forward Guidance Contracts," CESifo Working Paper Series 5375, CESifo.
    6. Harrison, Richard, 2015. "Estimating the effects of forward guidance in rational expectations models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 196-213.
    7. Cole, Stephen J., 2018. "The effectiveness of central bank forward guidance under inflation and price-level targeting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 146-161.
    8. Gauti Eggertson & Vaishali Garga, 2019. "Sticky Prices versus Sticky Information: Does it Matter for Policy Paradoxes?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 363-392, January.
    9. Cole, Stephen, 2015. "Learning and the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance," MPRA Paper 65207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Nicolas Caramp & Dejanir Silva, 2019. "Fiscal Origins of Monetary Paradoxes," 2019 Meeting Papers 1281, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    12. Benjamin D. Keen & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2017. "Forward Guidance And The State Of The Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(4), pages 1593-1624, October.
    13. Gersbach, Hans & Hahn, Volker & Liu, Yulin, 2019. "Forward Guidance Contracts," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3386-3423, December.

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    Keywords

    Business cycles; Time-series analysis;

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