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Optimal Forward Guidance

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  • Florin O. Bilbiie

Abstract

Optimal forward guidance is the simple policy of keeping interest rates low for some optimally determined number of periods after the liquidity trap ends and moving to normal-times optimal policy thereafter. I solve for the optimal duration in closed form in a new Keynesian model and show that it is close to fully optimal Ramsey policy. The simple rule "announce a duration of half of the trap's duration times the disruption" is a good approximation, including in a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. By anchoring expectations of Delphic agents (who mistake commitment for bad news), the simple rule is also often welfare-preferable to Odyssean commitment.

Suggested Citation

  • Florin O. Bilbiie, 2019. "Optimal Forward Guidance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 310-345, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:11:y:2019:i:4:p:310-45
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170335
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodríguez Arosemena, Nicolás, 2018. "The Dominium Mundi Game and the Case for Artificial Intelligence in Economics and the Law," MPRA Paper 90560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Philippe Andrade & Gaetano Gaballo & Eric Mengus & Benoît Mojon, 2019. "Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, July.
    3. Nakata, Taisuke & Ogaki, Ryota & Schmidt, Sebastian & Yoo, Paul, 2019. "Attenuating the forward guidance puzzle: Implications for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 90-106.
    4. André, Marine-Charlotte & Traficante, Guido, 2020. "Forward Guidance in Small Open Economy," MPRA Paper 104600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu, 2017. "The Puzzle, the Power, and the Dark Side: Forward Guidance Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 12231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Florin Bilbiie & Xavier Ragot, . "Optimal Monetary Policy and Liquidity with Heterogeneous Households," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu, 2018. "Complementarity, Income, and Substitution: A U(C,N) Utility for Macro," CEPR Discussion Papers 12812, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Roulleau-Pasdeloup, Jordan, 2020. "Optimal monetary policy and determinacy under active/passive regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu, 2018. "Neo-Fisherian Policies and Liquidity Traps," CEPR Discussion Papers 13334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu, 2017. "The New Keynesian Cross: Understanding Monetary Policy with Hand-to-Mouth Households," CEPR Discussion Papers 11989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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