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Attenuating the forward guidance puzzle: implications for optimal monetary policy

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  • Nakata, Taisuke
  • Ogaki, Ryota
  • Schmidt, Sebastian
  • Yoo, Paul

Abstract

We examine the implications of less powerful forward guidance for optimal policy using a sticky-price model with an effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates as well as a discounted Euler equation and Phillips curve. When the private-sector agents discount future economic conditions more in making their decisions today, an announced cut in future interest rates becomes less effective in stimulating current economic activity. While the implication of such discounting for optimal policy depends on its degree, we find that, under a wide range of plausible degrees of discounting, it is optimal for the central bank to compensate for the reduced effect of a future rate cut by keeping the policy rate at the ELB for longer. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E61

Suggested Citation

  • Nakata, Taisuke & Ogaki, Ryota & Schmidt, Sebastian & Yoo, Paul, 2019. "Attenuating the forward guidance puzzle: implications for optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2220, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20192220
    Note: 2179645
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    Cited by:

    1. Budianto, Flora & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2020. "Average Inflation Targeting and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 14400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Jonas E. Arias & Martin Bodenstein & Hess Chung & Thorsten Drautzburg & Andrea Raffo, 2020. "Alternative Strategies: How Do They Work? How Might They Help?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-068, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2018. "A Survey-based Shadow Rate and Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    4. Kohei Hasui & Teruyoshi Kobayashi & Tomohiro Sugo, 2019. "Irreversible monetary policy at the zero lower bound," Discussion Papers 1906, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    5. Bilbiie, Florin Ovidiu, 2017. "The Puzzle, the Power, and the Dark Side: Forward Guidance Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 12231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Ferroni, Filippo & Fisher, Jonas D.M. & Melosi, Leonardo, 2019. "The limits of forward guidance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 118-134.
    7. Matthieu Lemoine & Harri Turunen & Mohammed Chahad & Antoine Lepetit & Anastasia Zhutova & Pierre Aldama & Pierrick Clerc & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2019. "The FR-BDF Model and an Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission in France," Working papers 736, Banque de France.
    8. Hess Chung & Etienne Gagnon & Taisuke Nakata & Matthias Paustian & Bernd Schlusche & James Trevino & Diego Vilán & Wei Zheng, 2020. "Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound: Assessing the Federal Reserve’s Current Policy Toolkit," CARF F-Series CARF-F-483, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    discounted euler equation; discounted phillips curve; effective lower bound; forward guidance; optimal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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