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Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia

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  • Timothy S. Hills
  • Taisuke Nakata

Abstract

The presence of the lagged shadow policy rate in the interest rate feedback rule reduces the government spending multiplier nontrivially when the policy rate is constrained at the zero lower bound (ZLB). In the economy with policy inertia, increased inflation and output due to higher government spending during a recession speed up the return of the policy rate to the steady state after the recession ends. This in turn dampens the expansionary effects of the government spending during the recession via expectations. In our baseline calibration, the output multiplier at the ZLB is 2.5 when the weight on the lagged shadow rate is zero, and 1.1 when the weight is 0.9.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy S. Hills & Taisuke Nakata, 2014. "Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-107, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-107
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    Cited by:

    1. Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2019. "Gradualism and Liquidity Traps," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 182-199, January.
    2. Nakata, Taisuke & Ogaki, Ryota & Schmidt, Sebastian & Yoo, Paul, 2019. "Attenuating the forward guidance puzzle: Implications for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 90-106.
    3. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Effective lower bound risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Boneva, Lena & Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2018. "Threshold-based forward guidance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 138-155.
    5. Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2019. "Gradualism and Liquidity Traps," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 182-199, January.
    6. Horvath, Roman & Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales & Rabitsch, Katrin, 2020. "Determinants of fiscal multipliers revisited," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Cole, Stephen J., 2018. "The effectiveness of central bank forward guidance under inflation and price-level targeting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 146-161.
    8. Taisuke Nakata & Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2016. "Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-085, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Philip Coyle & Taisuke Nakata, 2019. "Optimal Inflation Target with Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Boneva, Lena & Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2015. "Threshold-based forward guidance: hedging the zero bound," Bank of England working papers 561, Bank of England.
    11. Ma, Qingyin & Stachurski, John & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2020. "The income fluctuation problem and the evolution of wealth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    12. John Stachurski & Junnan Zhang, 2019. "Dynamic Programming with State-Dependent Discounting," Papers 1908.08800, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    13. Burriel, Pablo & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Jacquinot, Pascal & Stähler, Nikolai & Schön, Matthias, 2020. "Economic consequences of high public debt: evidence from three large scale DSGE models," Working Paper Series 2450, European Central Bank.
    14. Koester, Gerrit & Sondermann, David, 2018. "A euro area macroeconomic stabilisation function: assessing options in view of their redistribution and stabilisation properties," Occasional Paper Series 216, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; government spending multipliers; interest rate smoothing; liquidity trap; zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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