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Forward guidance and the state of the economy

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Abstract

This paper examines forward guidance using a nonlinear New Keynesian model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate. Forward guidance is modeled with news shocks to the monetary policy rule. The effectiveness of forward guidance depends on the state of the economy, the speed of the recovery, the ZLB constraint, the degree of uncertainty, the monetary response to inflation, the size of the news shocks, and the forward guidance horizon. Specifically, the stimulus from forward guidance falls as the economy deteriorates or as households expect a slower recovery. When the ZLB binds, less uncertainty about the economy or an expectation of a stronger response to inflation reduces the benefit of forward guidance. Forward guidance via a news shock is less stimulative than an unanticipated monetary policy shock around the steady state, but a news shock is more stimulative near the ZLB and always has a larger cumulative effect on output. When the central bank extends the forward guidance horizon, the cumulative effect initially increases but then decreases. These results indicate that there are limits to the stimulus forward guidance can provide, but that stimulus is largest when the news is communicated early in a recession.

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  • Keen, Benjamin D. & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel, 2016. "Forward guidance and the state of the economy," Working Papers 1612, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 19 May 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1612
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1612
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Atkinson, Tyler & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel, 2018. "The Accuracy of Linear and Nonlinear Estimation in the Presence of the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 1804, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "The art of central banks' forward guidance at the zero lower bound," MPRA Paper 57043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2016. "The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-9, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. repec:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:7:p:1971-2006 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ngotran, Duong, 2017. "Interest on reserves and monetary policy of targeting both interest rate and money supply," MPRA Paper 81579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mitsuru Katagiri, 2016. "Forward Guidance as a Monetary Policy Rule," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    7. Hughes Hallett Andrew & Nicola Acocella, "undated". "Stabilization and expanded commitment: a theory of forward guidance for economies with rational expectations," Working Papers 132/14, Sapienza University of Rome, Metodi e modelli per l'economia, il territorio e la finanza MEMOTEF.
    8. Christopher Gust & Edward Herbst & David López-Salido & Matthew E. Smith, 2017. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1971-2006, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward guidance; zero lower bound; news shocks; global solution method;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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