IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/1163.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB : A Tale of Two Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Schorfheide
  • Pablo Cuba-Borda
  • S. Boragan Aruoba

Abstract

We compute a sunspot equilibrium in an estimated small-scale New Keynesian model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on nominal interest rates and a full set of stochastic fundamental shocks. In this equilibrium a sunspot shock can move the economy from a regime in which inflation is close to the central bank's target to a regime in which the central bank misses its target, inflation rates are negative, and interest rates are close to zero with high probability. A nonlinear filter is used to examine whether the U.S. in the aftermath of the Great Recession and Japan in the late 1990s transitioned to a deflation regime. The results are somewhat sensitive to the model specification, but on balance, the answer is affirmative for Japan and negative for the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Schorfheide & Pablo Cuba-Borda & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2016. "Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB : A Tale of Two Countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 1163, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1163
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2016.1163
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/ifdp/2016/files/ifdp1163.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Armenter, Roc, 2013. "The perils of nominal targets," Working Papers 14-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 04 Feb 2014.
    2. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2012. "The Making Of A Great Contraction With A Liquidity Trap and A Jobless Recovery," CEPR Discussion Papers 9237, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Hibiki Ichiue & Takushi Kurozumi & Takeki Sunakawa, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics And Labor Market Specifications: A Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach For Japan'S Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 273-287, January.
    4. Del Negro, Marco & Hasegawa, Raiden B. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2016. "Dynamic prediction pools: An investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 391-405.
    5. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Gordon, Grey & Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2015. "Nonlinear adventures at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 182-204.
    6. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Bocola, Luigi & Schorfheide, Frank, 2017. "Assessing DSGE model nonlinearities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 34-54.
    7. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
    8. Christophe Andrieu & Arnaud Doucet & Roman Holenstein, 2010. "Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(3), pages 269-342.
    9. S. Boragan Aruoba & Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Sticky Prices versus Monetary Frictions: An Estimation of Policy Trade-Offs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 60-90, January.
    10. Christopher Gust & Edward Herbst & David López-Salido & Matthew E. Smith, 2017. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1971-2006, July.
    11. Oecd, 2013. "Albania Assessment Report 2013," SIGMA Country Assessment Reports 2013/14, OECD Publishing.
    12. Kazuo Ueda, 2012. "The Effectiveness Of Non‐Traditional Monetary Policy Measures: The Case Of The Bank Of Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 63(1), pages 1-22, March.
    13. Kuroda, Sachiko & Yamamoto, Isamu, 2008. "Estimating Frisch labor supply elasticity in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 566-585, December.
    14. Tim Hursey & Alexander L. Wolman, 2010. "Monetary policy and global equilibria in a production economy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 4Q, pages 317-337.
    15. Negro, Marco Del & Schorfheide, Frank, 2013. "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    16. Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "An Estimated DSGE Model with a Deflation Steady State," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 025, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    17. Ireland, Peter N, 2004. "Money's Role in the Monetary Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 969-983, December.
    18. Karel R. S. M. Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations-Driven Liquidity Trap," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 1637-1667.
    19. Oecd, 2013. "Kosovo Assessment Report 2013," SIGMA Country Assessment Reports 2013/8, OECD Publishing.
    20. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    21. Boneva, Lena Mareen & Braun, R. Anton & Waki, Yuichiro, 2016. "Some unpleasant properties of loglinearized solutions when the nominal rate is zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 216-232.
    22. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, February.
    23. Sugo, Tomohiro & Ueda, Kozo, 2008. "Estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 476-502, December.
    24. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    25. Piazza, Roberto, 2016. "Self-fulfilling deflations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 18-40.
    26. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    27. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Schorfheide, Frank & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Kryshko, Maxym & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2012. "Methods versus substance: Measuring the effects of technology shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 826-846.
    28. Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
    29. Kenneth Judd & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2012. "Merging simulation and projection approaches to solve high-dimensional problems," Working Papers. Serie AD 2012-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    30. Aruoba, S. Boragan, 2014. "Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates: The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Staff Report 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    31. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
    32. Oecd, 2013. "Turkey Assessment Report 2013," SIGMA Country Assessment Reports 2013/2, OECD Publishing.
    33. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    34. Krueger, Dirk & Kubler, Felix, 2004. "Computing equilibrium in OLG models with stochastic production," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1411-1436, April.
    35. John H. Cochrane, 2013. "The New-Keynesian Liquidity Trap," NBER Working Papers 19476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Kenneth L. Judd & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2010. "A Cluster-Grid Projection Method: Solving Problems with High Dimensionality," NBER Working Papers 15965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Oecd, 2013. "Montenegro Assessment Report 2013," SIGMA Country Assessment Reports 2013/6, OECD Publishing.
    38. Oecd, 2013. "Bosnia and Herzegovina Assessment Report 2013," SIGMA Country Assessment Reports 2013/12, OECD Publishing.
    39. Oecd, 2013. "Serbia Assessment Report 2013," SIGMA Country Assessment Reports 2013/4, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deflation ; DSGE Models ; Japan ; Multiple Equilibria ; Nonlinear Filtering ; Nonlinear Solution Methods ; Sunspots ; U.S. ; ZLB;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1163. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (FRB Librarian). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.