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Online Estimation of DSGE Models

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Abstract

The estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models is a computationally demanding task. As these models change to address new challenges (such as household and firm heterogeneity, the lower bound on nominal interest rates, and occasionally binding financial constraints), they become even more complex and difficult to estimate?so much so that current estimation procedures are no longer up to the task. This post discusses a new technique for estimating these models which belongs to the class of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms, an approach we employ to estimate the New York Fed DSGE model. To learn more, check out this paper of ours.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Cai & Marco Del Negro & Edward P. Herbst & Ethan Matlin & Reca Sarfati & Frank Schorfheide, 2019. "Online Estimation of DSGE Models," Liberty Street Economics 20190821, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednls:87349
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    2. Ho, Paul, 2024. "Estimating the effects of demographics on interest rates: A robust Bayesian perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Masashige Hamano & Munechika Katayama, 2021. "Epidemics and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Working Papers e162, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    4. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2024. "Active or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy during high inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    5. Paul Ho & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Felipe Schwartzman, 2022. "Multilateral Comovement in a New Keynesian World: A Little Trade Goes a Long Way," Working Paper 22-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    6. Fasolo, Angelo M. & Araujo, Eurilton & Jorge, Marcos Valli & Kornelius, Alexandre & Marinho, Leonardo Sousa Gomes, 2024. "Brazilian macroeconomic dynamics redux: Shocks, frictions, and unemployment in SAMBA model," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(2).
    7. Jabeen, Fauzia & Kaur, Puneet & Talwar, Shalini & Malodia, Suresh & Dhir, Amandeep, 2022. "I love you, but you let me down! How hate and retaliation damage customer-brand relationship," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    8. Zhang, Xiaodi, 2025. "Integrating policy design with agricultural emissions reduction in China: A multi-sector DSGE Approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 2019-2048.
    9. Peter McAdam & Anders Warne, 2024. "Density forecast combinations: The real‐time dimension," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1153-1172, August.
    10. Jinting Guo, 2025. "On the Identification of Diagnostic Expectations: Econometric Insights from DSGE Models," Papers 2509.08472, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    11. Ho, Paul, 2023. "Global robust Bayesian analysis in large models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 608-642.

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    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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