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A survey of sequential Monte Carlo methods for economics and finance

  • Creal, D.

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics)

This paper serves as an introduction and survey for economists to the field of sequential Monte Carlo methods which are also known as particle filters. Sequential Monte Carlo methods are simulation based algorithms used to compute the high-dimensional and/or complex integrals that arise regularly in applied work. These methods are becoming increasingly popular in economics and finance; from dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models in macro-economics to option pricing. The objective of this paper is to explain the basics of the methodology, provide references to the literature, and cover some of the theoretical results that justify the methods in practice.

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File URL: http://degree.ubvu.vu.nl/repec/vua/wpaper/pdf/20090018.pdf
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Paper provided by VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics in its series Serie Research Memoranda with number 0018.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:vua:wpaper:2009-18
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  1. Tanizaki, Hisashi & Mariano, Roberto S., 1998. "Nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space modeling with Monte Carlo simulations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 263-290.
  2. Johansen, Adam M. & Doucet, Arnaud, 2008. "A note on auxiliary particle filters," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(12), pages 1498-1504, September.
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  4. Arnaud Doucet & Vladislav Tadić, 2003. "Parameter estimation in general state-space models using particle methods," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 55(2), pages 409-422, June.
  5. Koopman, S.J.M. & Shephard, N. & Doornik, J.A., 1998. "Statistical Algorithms for Models in State Space Using SsfPack 2.2," Discussion Paper 1998-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Chopin, Nicolas & Pelgrin, Florian, 2004. "Bayesian inference and state number determination for hidden Markov models: an application to the information content of the yield curve about inflation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 327-344, December.
  7. Neil Shephard & Charles S. Bos, 2004. "Inference for adaptive time series models: stochastic volatility and conditionally Gaussian state space form," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-W02, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Chib, Siddhartha & Nardari, Federico & Shephard, Neil, 2002. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 281-316, June.
  9. Christophe Andrieu & Arnaud Doucet, 2002. "Particle filtering for partially observed Gaussian state space models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 827-836.
  10. Flury, Thomas & Shephard, Neil, 2011. "Bayesian Inference Based Only On Simulated Likelihood: Particle Filter Analysis Of Dynamic Economic Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(05), pages 933-956, October.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Pitt, Michael K, 2002. "Smooth Particle Filters for Likelihood Evaluation and Maximisation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 651, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  13. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
  14. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6072 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Ajay Jasra & David A. Stephens & Arnaud Doucet & Theodoros Tsagaris, 2011. "Inference for Lévy‐Driven Stochastic Volatility Models via Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-22, 03.
  17. Godsill, Simon J. & Doucet, Arnaud & West, Mike, 2004. "Monte Carlo Smoothing for Nonlinear Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 156-168, January.
  18. Nicholas G. Polson & Jonathan R. Stroud & Peter Müller, 2008. "Practical filtering with sequential parameter learning," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(2), pages 413-428.
  19. Chib S. & Jeliazkov I., 2001. "Marginal Likelihood From the Metropolis-Hastings Output," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 270-281, March.
  20. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, March.
  21. Rong Chen & Jun S. Liu, 2000. "Mixture Kalman filters," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(3), pages 493-508.
  22. J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
  23. Paul Fearnhead & Peter Clifford, 2003. "On-line inference for hidden Markov models via particle filters," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(4), pages 887-899.
  24. Nicolas Chopin, 2000. "A Sequential Particle Filter Method for Static Models," Working Papers 2000-45, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  25. Jasra, Ajay & Doucet, Arnaud & Stephens, David A. & Holmes, Christopher C., 2008. "Interacting sequential Monte Carlo samplers for trans-dimensional simulation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 1765-1791, January.
  26. Nicolas Chopin, 2007. "Inference and model choice for sequentially ordered hidden Markov models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(2), pages 269-284.
  27. Yuguo Chen & Persi Diaconis & Susan P. Holmes & Jun S. Liu, 2005. "Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Statistical Analysis of Tables," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 109-120, March.
  28. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November.
  29. Yuguo Chen & Junyi Xie & Jun S. Liu, 2005. "Stopping-time resampling for sequential Monte Carlo methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 199-217.
  30. Celeux, Gilles & Marin, Jean-Michel & Robert, Christian P., 2006. "Iterated importance sampling in missing data problems," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(12), pages 3386-3404, August.
  31. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, December.
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