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Bayesian inference and state number determination for hidden Markov models: an application to the information content of the yield curve about inflation

  • Chopin, Nicolas
  • Pelgrin, Florian

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 123 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Pages: 327-344

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:123:y:2004:i:2:p:327-344
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  1. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R. & Startz, Richard, 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 131-154, June.
  2. Walter R. Gilks & Carlo Berzuini, 2001. "Following a moving target-Monte Carlo inference for dynamic Bayesian models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(1), pages 127-146.
  3. Fruhwirth-Schnatter S., 2001. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation of Classical and Dynamic Switching and Mixture Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 194-209, March.
  4. Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991. "A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March.
  5. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, M. R., 1996. "Forecasting inflation from the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 103-122, May.
  6. Sharon Kozicki & P.A.Tinsley, 2001. "What do you expect? : imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis?," Research Working Paper RWP 01-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Gerlach, Stefan, 1997. "The Information Content of the Term Structure: Evidence for Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 161-79.
  8. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
  11. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  12. Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1997. "Le contenu en information de la pente des taux : application au cas des titres publics français," Working papers 43, Banque de France.
  13. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  14. Nicolas Chopin, 2001. "Sequential Inference and State Number Determination for Discrete State-Space Models through Particle Filtering," Working Papers 2001-34, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  15. L. Wasserman, 2000. "Asymptotic inference for mixture models by using data-dependent priors," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 159-180.
  16. Nicolas Chopin, 2000. "A Sequential Particle Filter Method for Static Models," Working Papers 2000-45, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  17. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
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