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Bayesian inference and state number determination for hidden Markov models: an application to the information content of the yield curve about inflation

  • Chopin, Nicolas
  • Pelgrin, Florian

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VC0-4BJX37R-1/2/f34ca1f662b663107cd87cf76218159a
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 123 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Pages: 327-344

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:123:y:2004:i:2:p:327-344
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  1. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2005. "What do you expect? Imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 421-447, March.
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. L. Wasserman, 2000. "Asymptotic inference for mixture models by using data-dependent priors," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(1), pages 159-180.
  4. Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991. "A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March.
  5. Nicolas Chopin, 2001. "Sequential Inference and State Number Determination for Discrete State-Space Models through Particle Filtering," Working Papers 2001-34, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  6. Stefan Gerlach, 1995. "The information content of the term structure: evidence for Germany," BIS Working Papers 29, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
  8. Roland Ricart & Éric Jondeau, 1999. "Le contenu en information de la pente des taux : application au cas des titres publics français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 140(4), pages 1-20.
  9. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Nicolas Chopin, 2002. "A sequential particle filter method for static models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 539-552, August.
  11. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  12. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, M. R., 1996. "Forecasting inflation from the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 103-122, May.
  13. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R. & Startz, Richard, 1998. "Testing for mean reversion in heteroskedastic data based on Gibbs-sampling-augmented randomization1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 131-154, June.
  14. Walter R. Gilks & Carlo Berzuini, 2001. "Following a moving target-Monte Carlo inference for dynamic Bayesian models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(1), pages 127-146.
  15. Fruhwirth-Schnatter S., 2001. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation of Classical and Dynamic Switching and Mixture Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 194-209, March.
  16. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
  17. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
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