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Introduction aux modèles espace-état et au filtre de Kalman

Author

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  • Matthieu Lemoine
  • Florian Pelgrin

Abstract

This article details the main concepts, problems and applications related to state-space models. We first present the general framework for these models and we, then, make explicit the algorithms used for the estimation, i.e. the Kalman filter and the EM algorithm. We, finally, analyse four applications : the decomposition of series into trend and cycle, the extraction of coincident economic indicators, the estimation of a time-varying equilibrium unemployment rate (TV-NAIRU) and the assessment of the informative content of the yield curve regarding future inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Lemoine & Florian Pelgrin, 2003. "Introduction aux modèles espace-état et au filtre de Kalman," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 86(3), pages 203-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_086_0203
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    Cited by:

    1. Bationo, Rakissiwinde & Hounkpodote, Hilaire, 2009. "Estimation des changements des cours du café et du cacao: Filtre de Kalman, filtre de Hodrick-Prescott et modélisation à partir de processus markovien [Estimated Changes in Prices of Coffee and Coc," MPRA Paper 26980, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2010.
    2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Andreas Groth & Patrice Dumas & Michael Ghil & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2015. "Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy," Post-Print hal-01678074, HAL.
    4. Sylvie Lecarpentier-Moyal & Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2007. "Analyse dynamique de la convergence des comportements de demande de monnaie en Europe," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(3), pages 321-357.
    5. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2010. "Processus d’intégration et coordination des politiques macroéconomiques dans le Mercosur : une approche en termes de cycles," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(2), pages 163-204.
    6. Sylvie Lecarpentier-Moyal & Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2007. "Analyse dynamique de la convergence des comportements de demande de monnaie en Europe," Post-Print halshs-00256488, HAL.
    7. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2003. "Écart de production dans la zone euro. Une estimation par le filtre de Hodrick-Prescott multivarié," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 86(3), pages 173-202.
    9. Éric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre. Une comparaison France/États-Unis," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 593-603.

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