IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01304310.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre, une comparaison France / Etats-Unis

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Frédéric Reynès

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, TNO - The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research)

  • Henri Sterdyniak

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

This paper confronts, theoretically and empirically, two estimation methods for the equilibrium rate of unemployment. The introduction of observable variables into the tv-nairu approach and unobservable variables into the structural approach improves these two methods and makes them converge even though their diagnoses differ appreciably in the French case.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre, une comparaison France / Etats-Unis," Post-Print hal-01304310, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01304310
    DOI: 10.3917/reco.563.0593
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01304310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01304310/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3917/reco.563.0593?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2003. "Time-varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1625 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Matthieu Lemoine & Florian Pelgrin, 2003. "Introduction aux modèles espace-état et au filtre de Kalman," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 86(3), pages 203-229.
    4. Dave Turner & Elena Seghezza, 1999. "Testing for a Common OECD Phillips Curve," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 219, OECD Publishing.
    5. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5372 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999. "A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
    8. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    9. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1625 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Odile Chagny & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "Le taux de chômage d'équilibre. Discussion théorique et évaluation empirique," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 81(2), pages 205-244.
    12. Chow, Gregory C., 1984. "Random and changing coefficient models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 21, pages 1213-1245, Elsevier.
    13. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    14. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Yannick L'Horty & Florence Thibault, 1998. "Le chômage d'équilibre, de quoi parlons-nous ?," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 13(4), pages 51-81.
    16. Yannick L'Horty & Florence Thibault, 1997. "Le Nairu en France : les insuffisances d'une courbe de Phillips," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 127(1), pages 83-99.
    17. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
    18. Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Publishing.
    19. Laurence Boone, 2000. "Comparing Semi-Structural Methods to Estimate Unobserved Variables: The HPMV and Kalman Filters Approaches," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 240, OECD Publishing.
    20. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1996. "On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 805-852.
    22. Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 205-244.
    23. Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le chômage structurel à 5 % en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 115-151.
    24. Benoit Quenneville & Avinash C. Singh, 2000. "Bayesian Prediction Mean Squared Error for State Space Models with Estimated Parameters," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 219-236, March.
    25. Gordon, Robert J, 1977. "The Theory of Domestic Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 128-134, February.
    26. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Hammour, Mohamad L., 1998. "Jobless growth: appropriability, factor substitution, and unemployment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 51-94, June.
    27. Hervé Le Bihan & Henri Sterdyniak, 1998. "Courbe de Phillips et modèle WS-PS," Post-Print hal-03458369, HAL.
    28. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1903 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Cross,Rod Preface by-Name:Blanchard,Olivier (ed.), 1995. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521483308, October.
    31. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
    32. G. L. Perry, 1964. "The Determinants of Wage Rate Changes and the Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off for the United States," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 31(4), pages 287-308.
    33. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    34. Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics.
    35. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    36. Henri Sterdyniak & Michèle Debonneuil, 1984. "La boucle prix-salaires dans l'inflation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 35(2), pages 267-312.
    37. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1903 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-227, June.
    39. Mikael Apel & Per Jansson, 1999. "System estimates of potential output and the NAIRU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 373-388.
    40. Irac, D., 2000. "Estimation of a Time Varying NAIRU for France," Working papers 75, Banque de France.
    41. Lawrence F. Katz & Olivier Blanchard, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 69-74, May.
    42. Robert G. King & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Temporal instability of the unemployment-inflation relationship," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 19(May), pages 2-12.
    43. K.Mc Morrow & W. Roeger, 2000. "Time-varying Nairu/Nawru estimates for the EU Member States," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 145, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    44. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 1999. "Uncertainty and the Taylor rule in a simple model of the Euro-area economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    45. Hamilton, James D., 1986. "A standard error for the estimated state vector of a state-space model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 387-397, December.
    46. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    47. Wolfgang Franz, 2005. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 131-153, May.
    48. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A & Haltiwanger, John, 1997. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 115-137, March.
    49. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2129 is not listed on IDEAS
    50. Henri Sterdyniak & Hervé Le Bihan, 1998. "Courbe de Phillips et modèle WS-PS. Quelques réflexions," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(3), pages 937-948.
    51. Assar Lindbeck, 1993. "Unemployment and Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121751, April.
    52. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2129 is not listed on IDEAS
    53. Philippine Cour & Henri Sterdyniak & Hervé Le Bihan, 1997. "La croissance potentielle," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03426738, HAL.
    54. Philippine Cour & Henri Sterdyniak & Hervé Le Bihan, 1997. "La notion de croissance potentielle a-t-elle un sens ?," Post-Print hal-03428414, HAL.
    55. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
    5. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01027422, HAL.
    6. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Working Papers hal-01027420, HAL.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Working Papers hal-01027420, HAL.
    6. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
    11. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01027422, HAL.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7349 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7349 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1907 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1907 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Eric Heyer, 2010. "Efficacité de la politique économique et position dans le cycle: le cas de la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires en France," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-26, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    17. Gómez García, F. & Rebollo Sanz, Y. & Usabiaga Ibáñez, C., 2002. "Nuevas estimaciones de la NAIRU de la economía española: métodos directos," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 509-530, Diciembre.
    18. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h561p0po1 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61ql8ubo is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61ql8ubo is not listed on IDEAS
    23. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61ql8ubo is not listed on IDEAS
    24. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h561p0po1 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61k5ih10 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61ql8ubo is not listed on IDEAS
    27. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61k5ih10 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Jérôme Creel & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03460510, HAL.
    29. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    30. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    31. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    32. Odile Chagny & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "The equilibrium rate of unemployment : a theoretical discussion and an empirical evaluation for six OECD countries," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01027421, HAL.
    33. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/7349 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/7349 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    36. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1625 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    38. Robert J. Gordon, 2011. "The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 10-50, January.
    39. T. Berger, 2008. "Estimating Europe’s Natural Rates from a forward-looking Phillips curve," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/498, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    40. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1625 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Aurélien GAIMON & Vincent LAPEGUE & Paola MONPERRUS-VERONI & Noé N’SEMI & Frédéric REYNÈS & Maël THEULIERE, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle? a Theoretical and Empirical Appraisal," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    42. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    43. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Paola Veroni & Noé N'Semi & Frédéric Reynés & Maël Theulière, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle ? A theoretical and empirical appraisal," Working Papers hal-03602950, HAL.
    45. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Tino Berger, 2011. "Estimating Europe’s natural rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 521-536, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chômage; TV-NAIRU;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01304310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.