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Le chômage structurel à 5 % en France ?

Author

Listed:
  • Éric Heyer
  • Xavier Timbeau

Abstract

Using a standard state-space model with a reduced Phillips equation, we propose a model with better dynamics and explicit separation of NAIRU and structural unemployment. This model requires the use of a Kalman filter. Under reasonable assumptions on the innovations to the NAIRU equation, our NAIRU estimates are close to what is usual for France, while the value of the structural rate of unemployment is between 5 and 6%. This reconciles the measure of structural unemployment with the intuition of « full employment » unemployment rate. Some determinants of the structural unemployment are empirically validated. The inflation ? unemployment dilemma does not stand in the long run ; real interest rates and minimum wage positively influence U* ; productivity plays negatively ; replacement rate and the fiscal-social wedge have no impact on U*.

Suggested Citation

  • Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le chômage structurel à 5 % en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 115-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_080_0115
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    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61qna0rp is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2010. "Quelle dette publique à l'horizon 2030 en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 5-33.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61ql8ubo is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Eric Heyer, 2010. "Efficacité de la politique économique et position dans le cycle : le cas de la défiscalisation des heures supplémentaires en France," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-01069450, HAL.
    7. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-01027422, HAL.
    8. Éric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre. Une comparaison France/États-Unis," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 593-603.
    9. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Working Papers hal-01027420, HAL.
    10. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2018. "Some Thoughts and Proposals Concerning the Concept of Output Gap [Réflexions et suggestions autour du concept d’output gap]," Post-Print hal-02335667, HAL.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1907 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h561p0po1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61ql8ubo is not listed on IDEAS
    16. El Alaoui, Aicha & Ezzahidi, Elhadj & Eladnani, Mohamed Jellal, 2013. "Etimating NAIRU: the Morocco case," MPRA Paper 56815, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2014.
    17. Gerard Cornilleau & Jerome Creel, 2014. "Financialisation and the Financial and Economic Crises: The Case of France," FESSUD studies fstudy22, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    18. Mustapha Baghli & Véronique Brunhes-Lesage & Olivier de Bandt & Henry Fraisse & Jean-Pierre Villetelle, 2004. "MASCOTTE: Model for AnalySing and foreCasting shOrT TErm developments," Working papers 106, Banque de France.
    19. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61k5ih10 is not listed on IDEAS

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