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Quelle dette publique à l'horizon 2030 en France ?

  • Éric Heyer
  • Mathieu Plane
  • Xavier Timbeau

The financial and banking crisis in France, as in all industrialized countries, has had a considerable impact on the activity and evolution of public finances. If the lack of activity accumulated since the beginning of the crisis is expected to take over the next decade, the level of public debt (percent of GDP), however, should keep long-term effect of this crisis (2030). The purpose of this paper is to assess from different growth scenarios, the different trajectories of balances and public debt over the next two decades. Finally, beyond the uncertainties concerning the evolution of long term growth, we tested sensitivity to long-term debt to several assumptions (sustained rise in interest rates, fiscal policy more or less restrictive, etc.). JEL classification codes: E2, E62, E66, H68.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): n° 112 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 5-33

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_112_0005
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm

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  1. Christophe Blot & Xavier Timbeau, 2009. "Du chaos financier au K.O. économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqi, Sciences Po.
  2. Michel Fouquin & Clément Bosquet, 2008. "Productivité du travail : la fin du processus de convergence ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 419(1), pages 125-142.
  3. Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le chômage structurel à 5 % en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 115-151.
  4. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
  5. Hervé Le Bihan, 2004. "Tests de ruptures : une application au PIB tendanciel français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 133-154.
  6. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version: e-mod.fr," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1631, Sciences Po.
  7. Sabine Le Bayon & Catherine Mathieu & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Mathieu Plane & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2010. "Europe, États-Unis, Japon : quelles politiques budgétaires de sortie de crise ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 35-61.
  8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1625 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2001. "Le retour au plein emploi ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 79(4), pages 195-233.
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