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Quelle dette publique à l'horizon 2030 en France ?

Author

Listed:
  • Éric Heyer
  • Mathieu Plane
  • Xavier Timbeau

Abstract

The financial and banking crisis in France, as in all industrialized countries, has had a considerable impact on the activity and evolution of public finances. If the lack of activity accumulated since the beginning of the crisis is expected to take over the next decade, the level of public debt (percent of GDP), however, should keep long-term effect of this crisis (2030). The purpose of this paper is to assess from different growth scenarios, the different trajectories of balances and public debt over the next two decades. Finally, beyond the uncertainties concerning the evolution of long term growth, we tested sensitivity to long-term debt to several assumptions (sustained rise in interest rates, fiscal policy more or less restrictive, etc.). JEL classification codes: E2, E62, E66, H68.

Suggested Citation

  • Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2010. "Quelle dette publique à l'horizon 2030 en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 5-33.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_112_0005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version : e-mod.fr," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, pages 245-300.
    2. Christophe Blot & Xavier Timbeau, 2009. "Du chaos financier au K.O. économique," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 149-178.
    3. Hervé Le Bihan, 2004. "Tests de rupture : une application au PIB tendanciel français," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, pages 133-154.
    4. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2001. "Le retour au plein emploi ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 79(4), pages 195-233.
    5. Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le chômage structurel à 5 % en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 115-151.
    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1625 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sabine Le Bayon & Catherine Mathieu & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Mathieu Plane & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2010. "Europe, États-Unis, Japon : quelles politiques budgétaires de sortie de crise ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, pages 35-61.
    8. Méjean, Isabelle & Schwellnus, Cyrille, 2009. "Price convergence in the European Union: Within firms or composition of firms?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 1-10, June.
    9. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
    10. Clément Bosquet & Michel Fouquin, 2008. "Productivité du travail : la fin du processus de convergence ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 419(1), pages 125-142.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, pages 61-88.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    long term outlook; public debt; public deficit;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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