IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States

This paper confronts, theoretically and empirically, two estimation methods for the Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment (ERU). By introducing observable variables into the TV-NAIRU approach and unobservable variables into the structural approach, we show how these two methods can converge even though their diagnoses differ appreciably in the French case. We considerably improve the econometric and explanatory properties of the French TV-NAIRU model by identifying some of its determinants (interest rates, labour productivity). Moreover, by distinguishing between the concepts of long-term and medium-term ERU, we separate the medium- from the long-term and the observable from the unobservable components of the ERU.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/pdf/dtravail/WP2004-06.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2004-06.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0406
Contact details of provider: Postal: 69, quai d'Orsay - 75007 PARIS
Phone: 01 44 18 54 00
Fax: 01 45 56 06 15
Web page: http://www.ofce.sciences-po.fr/Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Olivier Passet & Christine Rifflart & Henri Sterdyniak, 1997. "Ralentissement de la croissance potentielle et hausse du chômage," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 109-146.
  2. Laurence Ball, 1993. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Working Papers 4306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Henri Delessy & Philippine Cour & Hervé Le Bihan & Henri Sterdyniak, 1997. "Le taux de chômage d'équilibre, anciennes et nouvelles approches," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5268, Sciences Po.
  4. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1997. "Jobless Growth: Appropriability, Factor Substitution, and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 6221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  6. Thomas Laubach, 1997. "Measuring the NAIRU : evidence from seven economies," Research Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  7. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2003. "Time-varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Irac, D., 2000. "Estimation of a Time Varying NAIRU for France," Working papers 75, Banque de France.
  9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo Engel & John Haltiwanger, 1996. "Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence," Documentos de Trabajo 6, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  10. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345.
  11. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1, October.
  12. Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le chômage structurel à 5 % en France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 115-151.
  13. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," Working papers 427, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  15. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543.
  16. Éric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre. Une comparaison France/États-Unis," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 593-603.
  17. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Frédéric Lerais & Hervé Le Bihan & Eric Heyer, 2000. "Relation de Phillips, boucle prix-salaire : une estimation par la méthode de Johansen," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 146(5), pages 43-60.
  19. Henri Delessy & Philippine Cour & Hervé Le Bihan & Henri Sterdyniak, 1997. "Le taux de chômage d'équilibre, anciennes et nouvelles approches," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5268, Sciences Po.
  20. Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 205-244.
  21. Odile Chagny & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "The equilibrium rate of unemployment : a theoretical discussion and an empirical evaluation for six OECD countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2002-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  22. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Henri Sterdyniak & Michèle Debonneuil, 1984. "La boucle prix-salaires dans l'inflation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 35(2), pages 267-312.
  24. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
  25. Assar Lindbeck, 1993. "Unemployment and Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121751, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francesco Saraceno)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.