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Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme

  • Beissinger, Thomas

In diesem Beitrag werden die wichtigsten Erkenntnisse zu Ausmaß und Ursachen der strukturellen Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa vor dem Hintergrund eines einheitlichen theoretischen Bezugrahmens zusammengefasst, erklärt und bewertet. Die strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit wird in der Literatur üblicherweise als diejenige Arbeitslosigkeit interpretiert, die langfristig mit einer konstanten Inflationsrate vereinbar ist. Diese Arbeitslosenquote wird auch als langfristige NAIRU oder natürliche Arbeitslosenquote bezeichnet. Die kritische Würdigung verschiedener Verfahren zur Schätzung der langfristigen NAIRU und ein kurzer Überblick über die Ergebnisvielfalt verschiedener empirischer Studien machen deutlich, dass NAIRU-Schätzungen derzeit keine präzisen Aussagen über das Ausmaß der strukturellen Arbeitslosigkeit zulassen. Empirische Untersuchungen zu den Determinanten der langfristigen NAIRU legen die Vermutung nahe, dass die internationalen Unterschiede in Entwicklung und Niveau der langfristigen NAIRU am besten durch die Interaktion von makroökonomischen Schocks und Institutionen erklärt werden können. Die detaillierte Betrachtung der einzelnen Studien macht allerdings die geringe Robustheit und die teilweise widersprüchlichen Schätzergebnisse deutlich. Die makroökonometrische Evidenz zu Ausmaß und den Ursachen der strukturellen Ar-beitslosigkeit muss bei dem derzeitigen Stand der Forschung daher mit Vorsicht beurteilt werden. This paper summarises, explains and evaluates the most important findings on the extent and causes of structural unemployment in Europe. In the literature, structural unemployment is usually interpreted as the unemployment that is consistent with a constant inflation rate in the long run. This unemployment rate is also called the long-run NAIRU or natural unemployment rate. The critical evaluation of various methods to estimate the long-run NAIRU and a short overview of the variety of results of different empirical studies make it obvious that NAIRU estimates at present do not permit precise statements with regards to the extent of structural unemployment. Empirical research on the determinants of the long-run NAIRU suggests that the international differences in the development and in the level of the long-run NAIRU can best be explained by the interaction of macroeconomic shocks and institutions. However, a detailed examination of the empirical studies shows the low robustness and inconsistency of the estimation results. Therefore, at the present state of research, the macroeconometric evidence concerning the extent and causes of structural unemployment must be treated with caution.

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Paper provided by University of Regensburg, Department of Economics in its series University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems with number 389.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:bay:rdwiwi:373
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