IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Phillips Curve in Australia

  • David Gruen

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Adrian Pagan

    (Australian National University)

  • Christopher Thompson

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

In this paper we discuss the development of Phillips curves in Australia over the forty years since Phillips first estimated one using Australian data. We examine the central issues faced by researchers estimating Australian Phillips curves. These include the distinction between the short and long-run trade-offs between inflation and unemployment, and the changing level of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), particularly in the 1970s. We estimate Phillips curves for prices and unit labour costs in Australia over the past three decades. These Phillips curves allow the NAIRU to change through time, and include a role for import prices and ‘speed-limit’ effects. The paper concludes by presenting an extended discussion of the changing role of the Phillips curve in the intellectual framework used to analyse inflation within the Reserve Bank of Australia over the past three decades.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1999/pdf/rdp1999-01.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp1999-01.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jan 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp1999-01
Contact details of provider: Postal: GPO Box 3947, Sydney NSW 2001
Phone: 61-2-9551-8111
Fax: 61-2-9551-8000
Web page: http://www.rba.gov.au/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.rba.gov.au/forms/rdp-order-form/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Kirby, Michael G, 1981. "An Investigation of the Specification and Stability of the Australian Aggregate Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(156), pages 35-46, March.
  2. Debelle, Guy & Vickery, James, 1998. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 384-98, December.
  3. P.D. Jonson & K.L. Mahar, 1972. "Earnings and Award Wages in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp27, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. Jeff Borland & Steven Kennedy, 1998. "Dimensions, Structure and History of Australian Unemployment," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.), Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market Reserve Bank of Australia.
  5. Nevile, John W, 1977. "Domestic and Overseas Influences on Inflation in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(28), pages 121-29, June.
  6. Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling inflation in Australia," International Finance Discussion Papers 530, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Ian J. Macfarlane, 1989. "Policy targets and operating procedures: the Australian case," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 143-159.
  8. Smith, Jeremy & Murphy, Chris, 1994. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 133-48, June.
  9. Mardi Dungey & John Pitchford, 1998. "Prospects for Output and Employment Growth with Steady Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.), Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market Reserve Bank of Australia.
  10. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. King, Robert G. & Watson, Mark W., 1994. "The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-219, December.
  12. Gregory, R G, 1986. "Wages Policy and Unemployment in Australia," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages S53-74, Supplemen.
  13. Volker Wieland, 1998. "Monetary policy and uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  15. Kerry E. Schott, 1969. "An Equation for Average Weekly Earnings," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  16. Pagan, Adrian, 1980. "Some identification and estimation results for regression models with stochastically varying coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-363, August.
  17. Challen, D W & Hagger, A J, 1975. "Another Look at Australia's Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Offs," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(25), pages 137-53, December.
  18. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  19. Parkin, Michael, 1976. "Yet Another Look at Australia's Short-Run and Long-Run Trade-Offs between Inflation and Unemployment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(26), pages 128-39, June.
  20. W. E. Norton, 1976. "Inflation And Unemployment: Some Issues," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 1(51), pages 13-28, 02.
  21. Parkin, Michael, 1973. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Trade-Offs Between Inflation and Unemployment in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(21), pages 127-44, December.
  22. Jonson, P D & Mahar, K L & Thompson, G J, 1974. "Earnings and Award Wages in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(22), pages 80-98, June.
  23. Richard Jackman, 1998. "European Unemployment: Why is it so High and What Should be Done About it?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.), Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market Reserve Bank of Australia.
  24. Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
  25. P.D. Jonson & K.L. Mahar & G.J. Thompson, 1973. "Earnings and Award Wages in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp27rev, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  26. Perry, L J, 1980. "A Note on Phillips and Phillips Curve Economics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 56(152), pages 87-90, March.
  27. David Gruen & Jacqueline Dwyer, 1995. "Are Terms of Trade Rises Inflationary?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9508, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  28. J. E. Stiglitz, 1999. "Introduction," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 249-254, November.
  29. Leeper, Eric M. & Gordon, David B., 1992. "In search of the liquidity effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 341-369, June.
  30. Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn, 2012. "Introduction," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 1 Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
  31. McDonald, John, 1975. "Wages and Prices in Australia: On the Short and Long-run Trade-Offs between Inflation and Unemployment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(25), pages 154-70, December.
  32. Rao, B Bhaskara, 1977. "An Analysis of the Short and Long-run Trade-offs between Unemployment and Inflation and Estimates of the Equilibrium Steady State Unemployment Rate in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(29), pages 273-84, December.
  33. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  34. Argy, Victor & Brennan, Anthony & Stevens, Glenn, 1990. "Monetary Targeting: The International Experience," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 66(192), pages 37-62, March.
  35. Nevile, J W, 1975. "A Comment on Short-Run and Long-Run Trade-Offs between Inflation and Unemployment in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(24), pages 132-36, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp1999-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paula Drew)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.