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Policy regimes and the shape of the Phillips curve in Australia

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  • Mallick, Debdulal

Abstract

We document an evolving pattern in the slope of the Phillips curve in Australia at different frequencies under different monetary policy regimes and labor market regulations. Our estimation strategy relies on the spectral analysis that includes the gain and phase spectrum but is also complemented by the time domain estimation. We document an upward sloping medium-run Phillips curve in the pre-1977 period, a downward sloping long-run Phillips curve from 1977 to 1993, and a flattened Phillips curve from 1993 onwards. Lag and lead relationship between inflation and unemployment varies across periods and frequencies. The Phillips curve at business-cycle frequencies is downward sloping in all periods. We explain our results in terms of the monetary targeting in 1976 and the inflation targeting in 1993 by the RBA, respectively, and important changes in labor relations from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Mallick, Debdulal, 2019. "Policy regimes and the shape of the Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1077-1094.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:41:y:2019:i:6:p:1077-1094
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2019.03.009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Phillips curve; Long-run; Business-cycle; Frequency; Spectral method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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