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Phillips Curve and the Equalibrium Unemployment Rate

A time-varying Phillips curve was estimated as a means to examine the changing nature of the relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate in Australia. The implied time-varying equilibrium unemployment rate was generated and the analysis showed the important role played by variations in the slope of the Phillips curve in changing the equilibrium unemployment rate. The deviations of actual unemployment rates from the estimated equilibrium unemployment rates also performed remarkedly well as measures of inflationary pressure.

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File URL: http://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/801088/1070.pdf
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Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 1070.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1070
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 4th Floor, FBE Building, Level 4, 111 Barry Street. Victoria, 3010, Australia
Phone: +61 3 8344 5355
Fax: +61 3 8344 6899
Web page: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au
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  1. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9706, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  2. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  3. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
  4. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  5. Wallis, K.F., 1992. "On Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconometric Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 264, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  6. Mark Crosby & Nilss Olekalns, 1998. "Inflation, Unemployment and the NAIRU in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 31(2), pages 117-129.
  7. Parkin, Michael, 1973. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Trade-Offs Between Inflation and Unemployment in Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(21), pages 127-44, December.
  8. Robert Dixon & John Freebairn & G. C. Lim, 2006. "Time-Varying Equilibrium Rates of Unemployment: An Analysis with Australian Data," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n11, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  9. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
  10. C Bean, 1992. "European Unemployment: A Survey," CEP Discussion Papers dp0071, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  11. Steven Kennedy & Nghi Luu & Anthony Goldbloom, 2008. "Examining Full Employment in Australia Using the Phillips and Beveridge Curves," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 41(3), pages 286-297, 09.
  12. Lipsey, Richard G, 1974. "The Micro Theory of the Phillips Curve Reconsidered: A Reply to Holmes and Smyth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 41(161), pages 62-70, February.
  13. Jeff Borland & Ian McDonald, 2000. "Labour Market Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n15, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  14. Grubb, David B. & Jackman, Richard & Layard, Richard, 1983. "Wage rigidity and unemployment in OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 11-39.
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