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Unemployment–inflation trade-offs in OECD countries

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  • Bhattarai, Keshab

Abstract

Inflation and unemployment reduce welfare of individuals and should be as low as possible in any economy. Cointegration and Granger causality tests suggest that there are long run relations between these two variables among the OECD economies. While rates of unemployment vary significantly among these economies, rates of inflation have stabilised at lower rates as a result of inflation targeting policies adopted in them during the last two decades. The Phillips curve phenomena are still empirically significant for 28 out of 35 of these OECD economies in country specific regressions; in fixed and random effect panel data models and in a panel VAR model for 1990:1 to 2014:4. Country specific supply curves and Okun curves are consistent to thin Phillips curve relations. Leftward shifts in the Beveridge and Phillips curves require labour market reforms balancing between job creations and destructions. Complementing macro stimulations by microeconomic structural and institutional reforms can bring efficiency in bargaining for wages and employment among firms and workers to make unemployment–inflation trade-offs more significant and relevant in these economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhattarai, Keshab, 2016. "Unemployment–inflation trade-offs in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 93-103.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:58:y:2016:i:c:p:93-103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.007
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    1. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:273-292 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Esu, Godwin & Atan, Johnson, 2017. "The Philip's Curve in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 82112, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Inflation; Economic policy; OECD;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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