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La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps

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  • Gbaguidi, David

    () (GREQAM–Université de la Méditerranée II, CREDDI-LEAD, Université des Antilles et de la Guyane)

Abstract

Résumé : La relation d’arbitrage inflation-activité réelle a progressivement retenu l’attention des chercheurs depuis l’étude de Phillips (1958). Pourtant, même si, dans le nouveau cadre keynésien d’analyse (NKPC), une quasi-résurrection de la courbe de Phillips a été entrevue, de nombreux aspects de la modélisation restent sujets à controverses dans la littérature actuelle. L’une des principales sources des remises en question du socle NKPC demeure celle associée à la prise en compte des anticipations des agents dans les rouages, à la fois théoriques et empiriques, de la réflexion. Partant de ce constat, cette revue de la littérature propose une synthèse des principaux résultats issus de l’introduction des anticipations dans les récentes modélisations de cette fameuse passerelle entre les sphères nominale et réelle du système économique. L’objectif est de restituer une synthèse des discours classique, monétariste et keynésien autour du thème de l’arbitrage, d’examiner les termes dans lesquels celui-ci est formulé, et de poser les jalons d’une évaluation de sa perméabilité aux débats plus largement « idéologiques » qui agitent l’ensemble de la profession.

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  • Gbaguidi, David, 2012. "La courbe de Phillips : temps d’arbitrage et/ou arbitrage de temps," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(1), pages 87-119, mars.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0067
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    16. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-370, February.
    17. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Modeling Inflation Dynamics: A Critical Review of Recent Research," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 155-170, February.
    18. Taylor, J.B., 2016. "The Staying Power of Staggered Wage and Price Setting Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2009-2042, Elsevier.
    19. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2016. "Kinked Demand Curves, the Natural Rate Hypothesis, and Macroeconomic Stability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 240-257, April.
    20. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2019. "Optimal Sticky Prices Under Rational Inattention," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 52(4), pages 573-617.
    21. Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2004. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 291, Society for Computational Economics.

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