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Survey Expectations

  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Martin Weale

This paper focuses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focuses on average expectations rather than individual expectations is advanced. Other models of expectations formation, such as the adaptive expectations hypothesis, are briefly discussed. Testable implications of rational and extrapolative models of expectations are reviewed and the importance of the loss function for the interpretation of the test results is discussed. The paper then provides an account of the various surveys of expectations, reviews alternative methods of quantifying the qualitative surveys, and discusses the use of aggregate and individual survey responses in the analysis of expectations and for forecasting.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1599.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1599
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  1. Batchelor, R. A., 1981. "Aggregate expectations under the stable laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 199-210, June.
  2. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," CARESS Working Papres 97-20, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
  3. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  4. Graham Elliott & Takatoshi Ito, 1998. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Tests of Efficiency in the Yen/Dollar Forward Exchange rate Market," Discussion Paper Series a347, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  5. Deutsch, Melinda & Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "The combination of forecasts using changing weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 47-57, June.
  6. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  7. Dominitz, J. & Manski, C.F., 1996. "Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," Working papers 9614, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  8. Bonham, Carl S & Dacy, Douglas C, 1991. "In Search of a "Strictly Rational" Forecast," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 245-53, May.
  9. Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
  10. Kajal Lahiri & Antony Davies & Xuguang Sheng, 2010. "Analyzing Three-Dimensional Panel Data of Forecasts," Discussion Papers 10-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  11. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  12. Georges Prat, 1994. "La formation des anticipations boursières," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 101-125.
  13. Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 1992. "Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 207-24, March.
  14. Entorf, Horst, 1993. "Constructing leading indicators from non-balanced sectoral business survey series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 211-225, August.
  15. Dominitz, Jeff, 2001. "Estimation of income expectations models using expectations and realization data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 165-195, June.
  16. Christopher D Carroll, 2002. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," Economics Working Paper Archive 477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  17. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics 9411003, EconWPA.
  18. Carl S Bonham & Richard H Cohen, 2000. "To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data," Working Papers 200003, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  19. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  20. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27.
  21. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 11313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1986. "Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? : New evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 277-281.
  23. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  24. repec:fth:inseep:9313 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.
  26. Demetriades, Panikos O, 1989. "The Relationship between the Level and Variability of Inflation: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 239-50, July-Sept.
  27. Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-31, August.
  28. Binder,M. & Pesaran,M.H., 1995. "Decision-Making in the Presence of Heterogeneous Information and Social Interactions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9537, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  29. Dasgupta, Susmita & Lahiri, Kajal, 1992. "A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 391-400, October.
  30. Branch, William A., 2002. "Local convergence properties of a cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 63-85, November.
  31. Batchelor, Roy & Peel, David A., 1998. "Rationality testing under asymmetric loss," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 49-54, October.
  32. Hélène Erkel-Rousse & François Bouton, 2002. "Conjonctures sectorielles et prévision à court terme de l'activité : l'apport de l'enquête de conjoncture dans les services," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 359(1), pages 35-68.
  33. Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August.
  34. Ciaran Driver & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "Transforming Qualitative Survey Data: Performance Comparisons for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 71-89, 02.
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