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Survey Expectations

  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Martin Weale

This paper focusses on survey expectations and discusses their uses for testing and modeling of expectations. Alternative models of expectations formation are reviewed and the importance of allowing for heterogeneity of expectations is emphasized. A weak form of the rational expectations hypothesis which focusses on average expectations rather than individual expectations is advanced. Other models of expectations formation, such as the adaptive expectations hypothesis, are briefly discussed. Testable implications of rational and extrapolative models of expectations are reviewed and the importance of the loss function for the interpretation of the test results is discussed. The paper then provides an account of the various surveys of expectations, reviews alternative methods of quantifying the qualitative surveys, and discusses the use of aggregate and individual survey responses in the analysis of expectations and for forecasting.

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Paper provided by Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR) in its series IEPR Working Papers with number 05.30.

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Length: 73 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:scp:wpaper:05-30
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  2. Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 1997. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 808-817, December.
  3. Batchelor, Roy & Peel, David A., 1998. "Rationality testing under asymmetric loss," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 49-54, October.
  4. Carl S Bonham & Richard H Cohen, 2000. "To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data," Working Papers 200003, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  5. Allan Timmermann & Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer, 2004. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 601, Econometric Society.
  6. Christopher D Carroll, 2002. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," Economics Working Paper Archive 477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  7. Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August.
  8. Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 1992. "Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 207-24, March.
  9. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1996. "Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 5690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  11. Brock, W.A., 1995. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  12. Dominitz, Jeff, 2001. "Estimation of income expectations models using expectations and realization data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 165-195, June.
  13. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 352-370, 04.
  14. François Bouton & Hélène Erkel-Rousse, 2002. "Conjonctures sectorielles et prévision à court terme de l'activité : l'apport de l'enquête de conjoncture dans les services," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 359(1), pages 35-68.
  15. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  16. Demetriades, Panikos O, 1989. "The Relationship between the Level and Variability of Inflation: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 239-50, July-Sept.
  17. Dasgupta, Susmita & Lahiri, Kajal, 1992. "A Comparative Study of Alternative Methods of Quantifying Qualitative Survey Responses Using NAPM Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 391-400, October.
  18. Elliott, Graham & Ito, Takatoshi, 1999. "Heterogeneous expectations and tests of efficiency in the yen/dollar forward exchange rate market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 435-456, April.
  19. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics 9411003, EconWPA.
  20. Batchelor, Roy A & Orr, Adrian B, 1988. "Inflation Expectations Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(219), pages 317-31, August.
  21. Bonham, Carl S & Dacy, Douglas C, 1991. "In Search of a "Strictly Rational" Forecast," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 245-53, May.
  22. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  23. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27.
  24. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M Hashem, 1998. "Decision Making in the Presence of Heterogeneous Information and Social Interactions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1027-52, November.
  25. Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
  26. Kathryn Dominguez, 1986. "Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? New evidence from survey data," International Finance Discussion Papers 281, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  27. Kajal Lahiri & Antony Davies & Xuguang Sheng, 2010. "Analyzing Three-Dimensional Panel Data of Forecasts," Discussion Papers 10-07, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  28. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 51-66, Spring.
  29. Entorf, Horst, 1993. "Constructing leading indicators from non-balanced sectoral business survey series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 211-225, August.
  30. Ciaran Driver & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "Transforming Qualitative Survey Data: Performance Comparisons for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 71-89, 02.
  31. Branch, William A., 2002. "Local convergence properties of a cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 63-85, November.
  32. Georges Prat, 1994. "La formation des anticipations boursières," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 101-125.
  33. repec:crs:wpaper:9313 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Deutsch, Melinda & Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "The combination of forecasts using changing weights," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 47-57, June.
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