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Inflation persistence

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Listed:
  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer
  • George R. Moore

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that the behavior of the conventional Phelps-Taylor model of overlapping wage contracts stands in stark contrast with important features of U. S. macro data for inflation and output. In particular, the Phelps-Taylor specification implies far too little inflation persistence. We present a new contracting model, in which agents are concerned with relative real wages, that is data-consistent. In a specification that nests both models, we resoundingly reject the conventional contracting model, but cannot reject the new contracting model.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & George R. Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:1993:i:mar:x:5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 1985. "Understanding Inflation in the 1980s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(1), pages 263-302.
    3. Anderson, Gary & Moore, George, 1985. "A linear algebraic procedure for solving linear perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-252.
    4. Edmund Phelps, 1978. "Disinflation without recession: Adaptive guideposts and monetary policy," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 783-809, December.
    5. Buiter, Willem H & Jewitt, Ian, 1981. "Staggered Wage Setting with Real Wage Relativities: Variations on a Theme of Taylor," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 49(3), pages 211-228, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vector autoregression; Econometric models; Interest rates; Inflation (Finance);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General

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