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The Zero-Interest-Rate and the Role of the Exchange Rate for Monetary Policy in Japan

  • Coenen, Guenter
  • Wieland, Volker

In this paper we study the role of the exchange rate in conducting monetary policy in an economy with near-zero nominal interest rates as experienced in Japan since the mid-1990s. Our analysis is based on an estimated model of Japan, the United States and the euro area with rational expectations and nominal rigidities. First, we provide a quantitative analysis of the impact of the zero bound on the effectiveness of interest rate policy in Japan in terms of stabilizing output and inflation. Then we evaluate three concrete proposals that focus on depreciation of the currency as a way to ameliorate the effect of the zero bound and evade a potential liquidity trap. Finally, we investigate the international consequences of these proposals.

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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2003/09.

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Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200309
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  1. Svensson, Lars-E-O, 2001. "The Zero Bound in an Open Economy: A Foolproof Way of Escaping from a Liquidity Trap," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(S1), pages 277-312, February.
  2. Goodfriend, Marvin, 2000. "Overcoming the Zero Bound on Interest Rate Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 1007-35, November.
  3. Gunter Coenen & Volker W. Wieland, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area, and Japan," International Finance Discussion Papers 745, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Jeff Fuhrer & Brian Madigan, 1994. "Monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 94-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 564, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. McCallum, Bennett T, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 870-904, November.
  8. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rate Economics: 1986," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(385), pages 1-18, March.
  9. Anderson, Gary & Moore, George, 1985. "A linear algebraic procedure for solving linear perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-252.
  10. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
  11. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  12. Buiter, Willem H., 2001. "The Liquidity Trap in an Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  14. Buiter, Willem H & Jewitt, Ian, 1981. "Staggered Wage Setting with Real Wage Relativities: Variations on a Theme of Taylor," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 49(3), pages 211-28, September.
  15. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1984. "Tests of Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 239-260 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Boucekkine, Raouf, 1995. "An alternative methodology for solving nonlinear forward-looking models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-734, May.
  17. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
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