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Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply

  • N. Gregory Mankiw
  • Ricardo Reis

This paper surveys the research in the past decade on imperfect information models of aggregate supply and the Phillips curve. This new work has emphasized that information is dispersed and disseminates slowly across a population of agents who strategically interact in their use of information. We discuss the foundations on which models of aggregate supply rest, as well as the micro-foundations for two classes of imperfect information models: models with partial information, where agents observe economic conditions with noise, and models with delayed information, where they observe economic conditions with a lag. We derive the implications of these two classes of models for: the existence of a non-vertical aggregate supply, the persistence of the real effects of monetary policy, the difference between idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks, the dynamics of disagreement, and the role of transparency in policy. Finally, we present some of the topics on the research frontier in this area.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15773.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Publication status: published as Mankiw NG, Reis R. Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply. Handbook of Monetary Economics. 2011.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15773
Note: EFG ME
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