Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters
Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households' views derive from news reports of the views of professional forecasters which in turn may be rational The model's estimates imply that people only occasionally pay attention to news reports; this inattention generates stickyness in aggregate expectations with important macroeconomic consequences
|Date of creation:||Jul 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.econ.jhu.edu
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, June.
- Laurence Ball, 1993.
"What determines the sacrifice ratio?,"
93-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997.
"Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries,"
Economic Policy Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
- George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
- William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
- George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
- Barsky, Robert B., 1987.
"The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January.
- Robert B. Barsky, 1986. "The Fisher Hypothesis and the Forecastability and Persistence of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 1927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bryan, Michael F & Gavin, William T, 1986. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(4), pages 539-44, November.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:477. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (None)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask None to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.