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Determinants of the Sacrifice Ratio: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries

This paper measures sacrifice ratios for all countries in the world over an approximately forty year time period, in addition to exploring the determinants of worldwide sacrifice ratios. We test the most commonly-cited determinants: the speed of disinflation, openness, central bank independence, inflation targeting, and political factors for both OECD and non-OECD countries. We find that the speed of disinflation is the most important determinant of OECD sacrifice ratios, but puzzlingly has no effect on non-OECD nations’ disinflation costs. Instead we find evidence that greater central bank independence and more openness are associated with lower non-OECD sacrifice ratios. We also find that the ratio of government debt to GDP–a variable that is not important when it comes to OECD countries–is highly significant for non-OECD economies. Specifically, we find that higher indebtedness is associated with lower sacrifice ratios in non-OECD nations, suggesting that greater levels of debt do not lead to higher expectations of inflation.

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Paper provided by Wake Forest University, Economics Department in its series Working Papers with number 106.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 10 Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:wfuewp:0106
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  1. Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2006. "Public Debt around the World: A New Dataset of Central Government Debt," Research Department Publications 4461, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Takashi Senda & Julie K Smith, 2008. "Inflation History And The Sacrifice Ratio: Episode-Specific Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(3), pages 409-419, 07.
  3. Brito, Ricardo D., 2010. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Matter: Another Look at OECD Economies’ Output Sacrifice Ratios," Insper Working Papers wpe_212, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  4. Hofstetter, Marc, 2008. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 327-345, March.
  5. Andreas Fischer, 1996. "Central bank independence and sacrifice ratios," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-18, January.
  6. J. Benson Durham, 2001. "Sacrifice ratios and monetary policy credibility: do smaller budget deficits, inflation-indexed debt, and inflation targets lower disinflation costs?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Bowdler, Christopher, 2009. "Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 148-160, February.
  8. Carlos Eduardo S. Gonçalves & Alexandre Carvalho, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies' Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 233-243, 02.
  9. Christopher Crowe & Ellen E. Meade, 2007. "Central Bank Independence and Transparency: Evolution and Effectiveness," Working Papers 2007-20, American University, Department of Economics.
  10. Daniels, Joseph P & VanHoose, David D, 2010. "Exchange-Rate Pass Through, Openness, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Working Papers and Research 2010-05, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics.
  11. Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 450-68, May.
  12. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Alex Cukierman, 2002. "Does a Higher Sacrifice Ratio Mean that Central Bank Independence is Excessive?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, May.
  15. Harold Brumm & Richard Krashevski, 2003. "The Sacrifice Ratio and Central Bank Independence Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 157-168, April.
  16. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and inflation: theory and evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  17. Giuseppe Diana & Moise Sidiropoulos, 2003. "Central Bank Independence, Speed of Disinflation and the Sacrifice Ratio," Working Papers of BETA 2003-08, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  18. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  19. Ricardo D. Brito, 2010. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Matter: Another Look at OECD Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1679-1688, December.
  20. Daniels, Joseph P & Nourzad, Farrokh & Vanhoose, David D, 2005. "Openness, Central Bank Independence, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 371-79, April.
  21. Chortareas, Georgios & Stasavage, David & Sterne, Gabriel, 2002. "Monetary Policy Transparency, Inflation and the Sacrifice Ratio," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 141-55, April.
  22. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
  23. Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 2002. "The 'New Keynesian' Phillips curve: closed economy versus open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 1-9, March.
  24. Barbara Caporale & Tony Caporale, 2008. "Political Regimes and the Cost of Disinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1541-1554, October.
  25. Lawrence Huiyan Zhang, 2005. "Sacrifice Ratios with Long-Lived Effects," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 231-262, 08.
  26. Cukierman Alex, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, And Independance: Theory And Evidence," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 10, December.
  27. Mark R. Stone, 2003. "Inflation Targeting Lite," IMF Working Papers 03/12, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Hutchison, M M & Walsh, C E, 1998. "The Output-Inflation Tradeoff and Central Bank Reform: Evidence from New Zealand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 703-25, May.
  29. Thomas Jordan, 1997. "Disinflation costs, accelerating inflation gains, and central bank independence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 1-21, March.
  30. Laurence Ball, 1993. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Working Papers 4306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Carl E. Walsh, 1995. "Output-inflation tradeoffs and central bank independence," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep22.
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