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Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle

  • Temple, Jonathan

Models of open economies with nominal rigidities are often thought to predict a correlation between openness to trade and the slope of the output-inflation trade-off, or Phillips curve. Using a variety of measures of the trade-off and a standard measure of openness, this paper argues that the direct evidence for a correlation is not strong. In turn, this calls into question the usual explanation for the negative correlation between openness and inflation that was documented by Romer (1993). The paper considers some alternative explanations for the Romer evidence.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 34 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 450-68

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:34:y:2002:i:2:p:450-68
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  1. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
  2. Barry, F., 1998. "Openness and the Cost of Relinquishing the Exchange Rate," Papers 98/15, College Dublin, Department of Political Economy-.
  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  4. Cristina T. Terra, 1998. "Openness And Inflation: A New Assessment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 641-648, May.
  5. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September.
  6. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1992. "Monetary policy games, inflationary bias, and openness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 147-164, January.
  7. Frank Harrigan & Peter G. McGregor & Kim Swales & Ya Ping Yin, 1993. "Openness, Imperfect Competition and the NAIRU," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 20(1/2), pages 52-72, January.
  8. Gonzaga, Gustavo M. & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 1997. "Equilibrium real exchange rate, volatility, and stabilization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 77-100, October.
  9. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  11. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
  13. Thomas Jordan, 1997. "Disinflation costs, accelerating inflation gains, and central bank independence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 1-21, March.
  14. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1, December.
  15. David Romer, 1998. "A New Assessment Of Openness And Inflation: Reply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 649-652, May.
  16. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "Can international monetary policy cooperation be counterproductive?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 199-217, May.
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