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Globalization,the Output-Inflation Tradeoff, and Inflation

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  • Harald Badinger

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the relation between inflation and globalization, measured in terms of trade and financial openness. Using a large crosssection of 91 countries covering the period 1985-2004, we establish two main empirical regularities. Both higher trade and financial openness i) reduce central bank?s inflation bias,yielding lower average inflation, and ii) are associated with a larger output-inflation tradeoff. This evidence is at odds with the standard Barro-Gordon framework, which would require globalization to have a negative effect on the output-inflation tradeoff to yield lower equilibrium inflation, but it is consistent with a recent strand of new Keynesian models emphasizing the role of imperfect competition and wage rigidities. Moreover, our findings do not hold up for the OECD subsample, which suggests that a group of highly developed countries has been successful in creating an institutional framework for central banks that eliminates distortions due to the time inconsistency problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Badinger, 2008. "Globalization,the Output-Inflation Tradeoff, and Inflation," FIW Working Paper series 010, FIW.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2008:i:010
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Qian, Zongxin, 2010. "Globalization and the Output-inflation Tradeoff: New Time Series Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 7718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Joseph Daniels & Sandeep Mazumder & David VanHoose, 2015. "Implications of Globalization for the Output-inflation Relationship: an Assessment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 39-60, February.
    3. Igor Da Silva Veiga & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça, 2014. "Financial Openness And Inflationtargeting: An Analysis For The Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 059, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Zhang, Chengsi & Zhou, You, 2016. "The Global Slack Hypothesis: New Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 339-348.
    5. Watson, Anna, 2016. "Trade openness and inflation: The role of real and nominal price rigidities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 137-169.
    6. Daniels, Joseph P. & VanHoose, David D., 2013. "Exchange-rate pass through, openness, and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 131-150.
    7. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Qian, Zongxin, 2016. "Trade openness and the Phillips curve: The neglected heterogeneity and robustness of empirical evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 13-18.
    8. Evans, Richard W., 2012. "Is openness inflationary? Policy commitment and imperfect competition," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1095-1110.
    9. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "The price-price Phillips curve in small open economies and monetary unions: theory and empirics," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 281-307, June.
    10. Steven B. Kamin, 2010. "Financial globalization and monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1002, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Tahir Mukhtar, 2010. "Does Trade Openness Reduce Inflation? Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 35-50, Jul-Dec.
    12. repec:jed:journl:v:42:y:2017:i:3:p:41-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:3:p:625-638 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Harald Badinger & Elisabeth Nindl, 2012. "Globalization, Inequality, and Corruption," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp139, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    15. Chengsi Zhang & Huidong He, 2016. "Globalization and Changing Inflation Dynamics in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 625-638, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Globalization; Trade; Financial Openness; Inflation; Output Inflation Tradeoff;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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