Globalization, the output-inflation tradeoff and inflation
This paper provides comprehensive evidence on the relation between inflation and globalization, defined here as trade and financial openness, using a large cross-section of 91 countries over the period 1985-2004. We establish two main empirical regularities: both higher trade and financial openness (i) reduce central banks' inflation bias, yielding lower average inflation and (ii) are associated with a larger output-inflation tradeoff. This evidence is at odds with the standard Barro-Gordon framework, which would require globalization to have a negative effect on the output-inflation tradeoff to yield lower equilibrium inflation, but it is consistent with a recent strand of new Keynesian models emphasizing the role of imperfect competition and nominal rigidities. Our findings also support the relevance of the time-inconsistency hypothesis, which underlies the theoretical models predicting a relation between globalization and inflation. For the OECD subsample, however, we do not find an effect of openness on inflation (the output-inflation tradeoff), suggesting that these countries have created an institutional framework for central banks that eliminates distortions due to the time-inconsistency problem.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laurence Ball, 1993.
"What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?,"
NBER Working Papers
4306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Has Globalization Changed Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 12687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002.
"An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K., 2001. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," Working Paper Series rwp01-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
- Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2006.
"The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
- Philip R. Lane & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II; Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004," IMF Working Papers 06/69, International Monetary Fund.
- Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970–2004," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp126, IIIS.
- Jong-Wha Lee, 1992.
"International Trade, Distortions and Long-Run Economic Growth,"
IMF Working Papers
92/90, International Monetary Fund.
- Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "International Trade, Distortions, and Long-Run Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 299-328, June.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Marcelo J. Moreira & James H. Stock, 2004.
"Optimal Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1476, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Marcelo Moreira & James H. Stock, 2004. "Optimal Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001.
"International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," CID Working Papers 42, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Selen Sarisoy Guerin, 2006. "The Role of Geography in Financial and Economic Integration: A Comparative Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Portfolio Investment Flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 189-209, 02.
- Ari Aisen & Francisco JosÃ© Veiga, 2005. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A+L2990 Panel Data Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/49, International Monetary Fund.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997.
"Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments,"
Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
- Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1994. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," NBER Technical Working Papers 0151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 450-68, May.
- Daniels, Joseph P & Nourzad, Farrokh & Vanhoose, David D, 2005. "Openness, Central Bank Independence, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 371-79, April.
- Lane, Philip R., 1997. "Inflation in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 327-347, May.
- William Gruben & Darryl Mcleod, 2004.
"The openness-inflation puzzle revisited,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(8), pages 465-468.
- James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joseph Daniels & David VanHoose, 2009.
"Trade Openness, Capital Mobility, and the Sacrifice Ratio,"
Open Economies Review,
Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 473-487, September.
- Joseph P. Daniels & David D. VanHoose, 2007. "Trade Openness, Capital Mobility, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Working Papers and Research 0701, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics.
- Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983.
"A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher Bowdler, 2005.
"Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve,"
2005-W25, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Bowdler, Christopher, 2009. "Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 148-160, February.
- Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Assaf Razin & Prakash Loungani, 2005. "Globalization and Equilibrium Inflation-Output Tradeoffs," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 171-192 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2004.
"Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness,"
NBER Working Papers
10496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gruben, William C. & McLeod, Darryl, 2002. "Capital account liberalization and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 221-225, October.
- Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
- Hardouvelis, G.A., 1988.
"Monetary Policy Games, Inflationary Bias And Openness,"
fb-_88-17, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1992. "Monetary policy games, inflationary bias, and openness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 147-164, January.
- Daniels, Joseph P. & VanHoose, David D., 2006. "Openness, the sacrifice ratio, and inflation: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1336-1347, December.
- Assaf Razin & Alon Binyamini, 2007. "Flattening of the Short-run Trade-off between Inflation and Domestic Activity: The Analytics of the Effects of Globalization," Kiel Working Papers 1363, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Romer, David, 1993.
"Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:53:y:2009:i:8:p:888-907. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.