Determinants of the sacrifice ratio: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries
This paper measures sacrifice ratios for all countries in the world over an approximately forty year time period, in addition to exploring the determinants of worldwide sacrifice ratios. We test the most commonly-cited determinants: the speed of disinflation, openness, inflation targeting, central bank independence, and political factors for both OECD and non-OECD countries. We find that the speed of disinflation is the most important determinant of OECD sacrifice ratios, but puzzlingly has no effect on non-OECD nations' disinflation costs. Instead we find evidence that greater central bank independence and more openness are associated with lower non-OECD sacrifice ratios. We also find that the ratio of government debt to GDP – a variable that is not important when it comes to OECD countries – is highly significant for non-OECD economies. Specifically, we find that higher indebtedness is associated with lower sacrifice ratios in non-OECD nations, suggesting that greater levels of debt do not lead to higher expectations of inflation. Furthermore we find evidence that the negative impact of debt on non-OECD sacrifice ratios is being driven by middle income economies.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas Jordan, 1997. "Disinflation costs, accelerating inflation gains, and central bank independence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(1), pages 1-21, March.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011.
"From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
- Marc Hofstetter, 2006.
"Disinflations In Latin America And The Caribbean: A Free Lunch?,"
002375, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
- Hofstetter, Marc, 2008. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 327-345, March.
- Marc Hofstetter, 2004. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Free Lunch?," Economics Working Paper Archive 506, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004.
"Does Inflation Targeting Matter?,"
in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-282
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2003. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Working Papers 9577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does inflation targeting matter?," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 118, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Niamh Sheridan & Laurence M. Ball, 2003. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," IMF Working Papers 03/129, International Monetary Fund.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981.
"Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,"
451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Crowe, Christopher & Meade, Ellen E., 2008.
"Central bank independence and transparency: Evolution and effectiveness,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 763-777, December.
- Christopher W. Crowe & Ellen E. Meade, 2008. "Central Bank Independence and Transparency; Evolution and Effectiveness," IMF Working Papers 08/119, International Monetary Fund.
- Christopher Crowe & Ellen E. Meade, 2007. "Central Bank Independence and Transparency: Evolution and Effectiveness," Working Papers 2007-20, American University, Department of Economics.
- Carl E. Walsh, 1995. "Output-inflation tradeoffs and central bank independence," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep22.
- David Romer, 1991.
"Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
3936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniels, Joseph P. & VanHoose, David D., 2013.
"Exchange-rate pass through, openness, and the sacrifice ratio,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 131-150.
- Daniels, Joseph P & VanHoose, David D, 2010. "Exchange-Rate Pass Through, Openness, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Working Papers and Research 2010-05, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics.
- Laurence Ball, 1994.
"What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?,"
in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence Huiyan Zhang, 2005. "Sacrifice Ratios with Long-Lived Effects," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 231-262, 08.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981.
"A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model,"
NBER Working Papers
0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
- Beck, Thorsten & Clarke, George & Groff, Alberto & Keefer, Philip & Walsh, Patrick, 2000. "New tools and new tests in comparative political economy - the database of political institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2283, The World Bank.
- Giuseppe Diana & Mose Sidiropoulos, 2004.
"Central Bank Independence, Speed of Disinflation and the Sacrifice Ratio,"
Open Economies Review,
Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 385-402, October.
- Giuseppe Diana & Moise Sidiropoulos, 2003. "Central Bank Independence, Speed of Disinflation and the Sacrifice Ratio," Working Papers of BETA 2003-08, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Alex Cukierman, 1992.
"Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence,"
MIT Press Books,
The MIT Press,
edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, March.
- Cukierman Alex, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, And Independance: Theory And Evidence," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 10, December.
- Hutchison, M M & Walsh, C E, 1998. "The Output-Inflation Tradeoff and Central Bank Reform: Evidence from New Zealand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 703-25, May.
- Daniels, Joseph P & Nourzad, Farrokh & Vanhoose, David D, 2005. "Openness, Central Bank Independence, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 371-79, April.
- Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2006.
"Public Debt around the World: A New Dataset of Central Government Debt,"
IDB Publications (Working Papers)
6710, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "Public debt around the world: a new data set of central government debt," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 19-24, January.
- Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2006. "Public Debt around the World: A New Dataset of Central Government Debt," Research Department Publications 4461, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- J. Benson Durham, 2001. "Sacrifice ratios and monetary policy credibility: do smaller budget deficits, inflation-indexed debt, and inflation targets lower disinflation costs?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bowdler, Christopher, 2009.
"Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 148-160, February.
- Christopher Bowdler, 2005. "Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve," Economics Papers 2005-W25, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Mark R. Stone, 2003. "Inflation Targeting Lite," IMF Working Papers 03/12, International Monetary Fund.
- Temple, Jonathan, 2002. "Openness, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve: A Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 450-68, May.
- Takashi Senda & Julie K Smith, 2008. "Inflation History And The Sacrifice Ratio: Episode-Specific Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(3), pages 409-419, 07.
- Barbara Caporale & Tony Caporale, 2008. "Political Regimes and the Cost of Disinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1541-1554, October.
- Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 2002.
"The 'New Keynesian' Phillips curve: closed economy versus open economy,"
Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 1-9, March.
- Razin, Assaf & Yuen, Chi-Wa, 2001. "The 'New Keynesian' Phillips Curve: Closed Economy versus Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ricardo D. Brito, 2010. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Matter: Another Look at OECD Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1679-1688, December.
- Carlos Eduardo S. Gonçalves & Alexandre Carvalho, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies' Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 233-243, 02.
- Andreas Fischer, 1996. "Central bank independence and sacrifice ratios," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-18, January.
- Alex Cukierman, 2002. "Does a Higher Sacrifice Ratio Mean that Central Bank Independence is Excessive?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(1), pages 1-25, May.
- Chortareas, Georgios & Stasavage, David & Sterne, Gabriel, 2002. "Monetary Policy Transparency, Inflation and the Sacrifice Ratio," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 141-55, April.
- Harold Brumm & Richard Krashevski, 2003. "The Sacrifice Ratio and Central Bank Independence Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 157-168, April.
- Brito, Ricardo D., 2010. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Matter: Another Look at OECD Economies’ Output Sacrifice Ratios," Insper Working Papers wpe_212, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:117-135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.