IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/mareco/v12y2018i2p138-170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can a Disinflationary Policy Have a Differential Impact on Sectoral Output? A Look at Sacrifice Ratios in OECD and Non-OECD Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Dinabandhu Sethi

    (Dinabandhu Sethi is at the School of Economics, University of Hyderabad, India, email: dinabandhu.hu2010@gmail.com)

  • Wing-Keung Wong

    (Wing-Keung Wong is at the Department of Finance and Big Data Research Center, Asia University, Department of Economics, Lingnan University, Hong Kong, email: Wong@asia.edu.tw)

  • Debashis Acharya

    (Debashis Acharya is at the School of Economics, University of Hyderabad, India, email: dass@uohyd.ernet.in)

Abstract

This article examines the sectoral impact of disinflationary monetary policy by calculating the sacrifice ratios for several Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries. Sacrifice ratios calculated through the episode method reveal that disinflationary monetary policy has a differential impact across three sectors in both OECD and non-OECD countries. Of the three sectors, the industry and service sectors show significant output loss due to a tight monetary policy in OECD and non-OECD countries. But the agricultural sector shows a differential impact of disinflation policy: It shows a negative sacrifice ratio in OECD countries indicating that output growth is insignificantly affected by a tight monetary policy while non-OECD countries yield positive sacrifice ratios, suggesting that the output loss is significant. Further, it is observed that sacrifice ratios calculated from aggregate data are different from ratios calculated from sectoral data. JEL Classification: E52, E58, C14, O50

Suggested Citation

  • Dinabandhu Sethi & Wing-Keung Wong & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Can a Disinflationary Policy Have a Differential Impact on Sectoral Output? A Look at Sacrifice Ratios in OECD and Non-OECD Countries," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 138-170, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:12:y:2018:i:2:p:138-170
    DOI: 10.1177/0973801017753260
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0973801017753260
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0973801017753260?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Okun, Arthur M, 1978. "Efficient Disinflationary Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 348-352, May.
    2. Hofstetter, Marc, 2008. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 327-345, March.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Tobias Böing, 2014. "Sacrifice Ratios for Euro Area Countries: New Evidence on the Costs of Price Stability," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 47(4), pages 455-471, December.
    4. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    6. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2005. "Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Malaysia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 83-102, March.
    8. W. Wascher & Palle S. Andersen, 1999. "Sacrifice ratios and the conduct of monetary policy in conditions of low inflation," BIS Working Papers 82, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q III).
    10. Giuseppe Diana & Mose Sidiropoulos, 2004. "Central Bank Independence, Speed of Disinflation and the Sacrifice Ratio," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 385-402, October.
    11. Takashi Senda & Julie K Smith, 2008. "Inflation History And The Sacrifice Ratio: Episode‐Specific Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(3), pages 409-419, July.
    12. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & David Lopez-Salido, J., 2005. "Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1107-1118, September.
    13. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "Determinants of the sacrifice ratio: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 117-135.
    15. Taylor, John B, 1983. "Union Wage Settlements during a Disinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 981-993, December.
    16. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Rich, Robert W, 2001. "Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 416-427, October.
    17. Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 205-244.
    18. S. Raja Sethu Durai & M. Ramachandran, 2013. "Sectoral effects of disinflation: Evidence from India," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 77-87, March.
    19. Jean-Jacques Durand & Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Julien Licheron, 2008. "Sacrifice ratio dispersion within the Euro Zone: what can be learned about implementing a single monetary policy?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 601-621.
    20. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    21. Chortareas, Georgios & Stasavage, David & Sterne, Gabriel, 2002. "Monetary Policy Transparency, Inflation and the Sacrifice Ratio," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 141-155, April.
    22. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    23. Bowdler, Christopher, 2009. "Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 148-160, February.
    24. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    25. Lawrence Huiyan Zhang, 2005. "Sacrifice Ratios with Long‐Lived Effects," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 231-262, August.
    26. Xiaohui Guo & Tajul Ariffin Masron, 2017. "Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy In China: Evidence From China'S Provinces," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 178-208, April.
    27. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Estimating Sectoral Disinflation Cost in India: Some Structural VAR Evidence," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 23-46, December.
    28. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
    29. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Credibility of inflation targeting: some recent Asian evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 203-219, August.
    30. Giuseppe Diana & Moise Sidiropoulos, 2004. "Central Bank Independence, Speed of Disinflation and the Sacrifice Ratio," Post-Print hal-00279005, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Big Data, Computational Science, Economics, Finance, Marketing, Management, and Psychology: Connections," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Credibility of inflation targeting: some recent Asian evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 203-219, August.
    2. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2018. "Estimating Sectoral Disinflation Cost in India: Some Structural VAR Evidence," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 23-46, December.
    3. Ravindra H. Dholakia & Kadiyala Sri Virinchi, 2017. "How Costly is the Deliberate Disinflation in India? Estimating the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 27-44, March.
    4. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    5. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Dholakia, Ravindra H. & Kadiyala Sri Virinchi, 2015. "How Costly is the Deliberate Disinflation in India? Estimating the Sacrifice Ratio," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-08-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    7. Martin Stojanovikj & Goran Petrevski, 2024. "Inflation targeting and disinflation costs in Emerging Market economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 283-312, February.
    8. Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2020. "Inflation-output trade-off: Old measures, new determinants?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "Determinants of the sacrifice ratio: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 117-135.
    10. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2013. "Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: Money supply rule versus interest rate rule," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 77-100.
    11. Jean-Jacques Durand & Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Julien Licheron, 2008. "Sacrifice ratio dispersion within the Euro Zone: what can be learned about implementing a single monetary policy?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 601-621.
    12. Jérôme Coffinet & Céline Poilly, 2009. "Une évaluation structurelle du ratio de sacrifice dans la zone euro," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 119(2), pages 273-299.
    13. Ashima Goyal & Gagan Goel, 2021. "Correlated Shocks, Hysteresis, and the Sacrifice Ratio: Evidence from India," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2929-2945, August.
    14. Giamattei, Marcus, 2015. "Cold Turkey vs. Gradualism - Evidence on Disinflation Strategies from a Laboratory Experiment," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-67-15, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    15. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2012. "Sacrifice Ratio in a Medium‐Scale New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 457-467, March.
    16. Eduardo Loría & Raúl Tirado, 2022. "Sacrifice rate and labour precariousness in Mexico, 2005Q1-2019Q4," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 41(87), pages 427-456, December.
    17. Aginta, Harry, 2023. "Revisiting the Phillips curve for Indonesia: What can we learn from regional data?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    18. Bowdler, Christopher & Nunziata, Luca, 2010. "Labor market structures and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 816-826, September.
    19. Coffinet, J., 2006. "Ratios de sacrifice et rigidités sur le marché du travail," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 151, pages 59-73.
    20. André Lunardelli & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2019. "The New Keynesian Model and Sacrifice Ratios: Some Measurement Issues," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_18, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Sacrifice Ratio; Sectoral Output Loss; Episode Method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:mareco:v:12:y:2018:i:2:p:138-170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ncaer.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.