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Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: money supply rule versus interest rate rule

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Ascari

    (University of Pavia)

  • Tiziano Ropele

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Empirical studies show that successful disinflations entail a period of output contraction. Using a medium-scale New Keynesian model, we compare the effects of disinflations of different speed and timing, implemented through either a money supply or an interest rate rule. In terms of transitional output loss, cold-turkey disinflations under an interest rate rule are less costly than those under a money supply rule and are accomplished more rapidly. Furthermore, gradual or anticipated disinflations deliver lower sacrifice ratios. From a welfare perspective, despite the transitional economic contraction, disinflations are overall welfare-improving. Interestingly, the overall welfare gain is not affected by how the disinflation is actually implemented: what really matters is the achievement of a permanently lower inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2012. "Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: money supply rule versus interest rate rule," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 867, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_867_12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Hatcher, Michael, 2022. "Solving linear rational expectations models in the presence of structural change: Some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    3. Gibbs, Christopher G. & Kulish, Mariano, 2017. "Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 157-174.
    4. Keuschnigg, Christian & Kirschner, Linda & Kogler, Michael & Winterberg, Hannah, 2020. "Italy in the Eurozone," Economics Working Paper Series 2010, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    5. Ferrara, Maria & Garofalo, Antonio & Agovino, Massimiliano, 2020. "Disinflation costs in China and monetary policy regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 586-594.
    6. Busato, Francesco & Ferrara, Maria & Varlese, Monica, 2022. "Disinflation Costs and Macroprudential Policies: Real and Welfare Effects," MPRA Paper 112272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Guizhou Wang & Kjell Hausken, 2022. "A Generalized Interest Rates Model with Scaling," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 143-150, September.
    8. Keuschnigg, Christian, 2022. "Monetary Union, Asymmetric Recession, and Exit," Economics Working Paper Series 2206, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    9. Hao Jin & Junfeng Wang, 2023. "The Effects of a Money-Financed Fiscal Stimulus Under Fiscal Stress," CAEPR Working Papers 2023-006 Classification-E, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    10. Haberis, Alex & Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Uncertain policy promises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 459-474.
    11. Claudio Cesaroni, 2017. "Optimal Long-Run Inflation and the Informal Economy," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 46, Bank of Lithuania.
    12. Faryna, Oleksandr & Jonsson, Magnus & Shapovalenko, Nadiia, 2021. "The cost of disinflation in a small open economy vis-à-vis a closed economy," Working Paper Series 407, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    disinflation; sacrifice ratio; nonlinearities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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