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Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: money supply rule versus interest rate rule

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Ascari

    (University of Pavia)

  • Tiziano Ropele

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Empirical studies show that successful disinflations entail a period of output contraction. Using a medium-scale New Keynesian model, we compare the effects of disinflations of different speed and timing, implemented through either a money supply or an interest rate rule. In terms of transitional output loss, cold-turkey disinflations under an interest rate rule are less costly than those under a money supply rule and are accomplished more rapidly. Furthermore, gradual or anticipated disinflations deliver lower sacrifice ratios. From a welfare perspective, despite the transitional economic contraction, disinflations are overall welfare-improving. Interestingly, the overall welfare gain is not affected by how the disinflation is actually implemented: what really matters is the achievement of a permanently lower inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2012. "Disinflation effects in a medium-scale New Keynesian model: money supply rule versus interest rate rule," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 867, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_867_12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Gibbs, Christopher G. & Kulish, Mariano, 2017. "Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 157-174.
    4. Christian Keuschnigg & Linda Kirschner & Michael Kogler & Hannah Winterberg, 2023. "Monetary union, asymmetric recession, and exit," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1833-1863, November.
    5. Keuschnigg, Christian & Kirschner, Linda & Kogler, Michael & Winterberg, Hannah, 2020. "Italy in the Eurozone," CEPR Discussion Papers 15040, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Ferrara, Maria & Garofalo, Antonio & Agovino, Massimiliano, 2020. "Disinflation costs in China and monetary policy regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 586-594.
    7. Busato, Francesco & Ferrara, Maria & Varlese, Monica, 2022. "Disinflation Costs and Macroprudential Policies: Real and Welfare Effects," MPRA Paper 112272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Guizhou Wang & Kjell Hausken, 2022. "A Generalized Interest Rates Model with Scaling," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 143-150, September.
    9. Hao Jin & Junfeng Wang, 2023. "The Effects of a Money-Financed Fiscal Stimulus Under Fiscal Stress," CAEPR Working Papers 2023-006 Classification-E, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    disinflation; sacrifice ratio; nonlinearities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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