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Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations

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  • Christopher G. Gibbs
  • Mariano Kulish

Abstract

We study disinflations under imperfect credibility of the central bank. Imperfect credibility is modeled as the extent to which agents rely on adaptive learning to form expectations. Lower credibility increases the mean, variance, and skewness of the distribution of sacrifice ratios. When credibility is low, disinflationary policies become very costly for adverse realizations of the shocks. Even if the impact of an announcement decreases with lower credibility, pre-announcing a disinflation reduces the sacrifice ratio. Additionally, disinflationary policies implemented after a period of below trend inflation lead to lower sacrifice ratios. Opportunistic disinflations are desirable when credibility is low.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher G. Gibbs & Mariano Kulish, 2015. "Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2015-36, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2015-36
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    Cited by:

    1. Germán Gutiérrez & Callum Jones & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 25609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Javier García-Cicco, 2019. "Alternative Monetary-Policy Instruments and Limited Credibility in Small and Open Economies: An Exploration," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4145, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    3. Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel & Preston, Bruce & Viana de Carvalho, Carlos, 2019. "Anchored Inflation Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13900, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2020. "Anchored inflation expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2020-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Patrizio Tirelli & Maria Ferrara, 2020. "Disinflation, Inequality, And Welfare In A Tank Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1297-1313, July.
    5. Honkapohja, Seppo & Kaushik, Mitra, 2018. "Price level targeting with evolving credibility," Research Discussion Papers 5/2018, Bank of Finland.
    6. Kwangyong Park, 2018. "Central Bank Credibility and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2018-45, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    7. Federico Sturzenegger, 2019. "Macri´s Macro: The meandering road to stability and growth," Working Papers 135, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Oct 2019.

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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